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Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Dan Patrick Poll

State Senator Dan Patrick just released a poll with a sample of 450 likely Republican primary voters showing him leading the Republican field for the U. S. Senate over the other announced candidates (does not include Lt. Gov. Dewhurst who has not announced):
  • Dan Patrick 19%
  • Tom Leppert 11%
  • Roger Williams 6%
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones 4%
  • Ted Cruz 2%
  • Not sure/refused 58%
The poll also shows him leading Ted Cruz in a hypothetical runoff 29% to 6% with 64% undecided.

There should be two keys for Patrick in deciding whether or not to make the race. One, does Lt. Gov. Dewhurst run? Second, can Patrick raise the money to be competitive statewide?

If Dewhurst announces, the Lieutenant Governor is the immediate frontrunner (probably why Patrick campaign did not release his poll numbers -- they certainly polled him). However, if Dewhurst decides not to run, Patrick clearly runs.

With respect to the second key, can Patrick raise the $6 to $10 million he needs to be competitive in a Republican primary with Dewhurst in the race? Probably not, because Dewhurst will grab the vast majority of Houston business money and Austin statewide money.

However, what the poll does show us is that Sen. Patrick is very formidable in a Republican primary, and that he is trying to stop Ted Cruz's recent wave of conservative endorsements.