Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Will McCaul Run for Senate?

Congressman Michael McCaul has recently gotten serious about running for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate from Texas. With Labor Day fast approaching, it appears the campaign needs to quickly make a go/no go decision. If he runs, he is reportedly prepared to spend $4 to $6 million of his personal fortune on the race. He will have to because as of June 30, McCaul only reported $143,256 cash on hand.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is now fully engaged in the race, with a goal to raise $3 million before the September 30 FEC reporting deadline. I anticipate that Dewhurst will be a strong fundraiser because donors know he is either going to be U. S. Senator or Lt. Governor, both extremely powerful offices.

Dewhurst intends to raise $7.5 million for the primary and spend whatever it takes to win. Of course, both Dewhurst and McCaul will have to weigh that under federal law a candidate can only be repaid a maximum of $250,000 for personal loans to the campaign.

If McCaul does announce for the Senate, that will also set off a scramble for his Congressional District that runs from Austin to Houston. However, I think it is more likely McCaul runs for reelection to the House, and then seeks an open Texas Attorney General seat in 2014.

8/31 CORRECTION: I originally stated that Dewhurst intends to spend $7.5 million on the primary. I was in error. He intends to raise $7.5 million for the primary, and spend whatever it takes to win.