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Monday, June 11, 2012

Analysis of Texas House Runoffs

Last week I researched the 104 Texas House runoffs that occurred between 1992 and 2010 (10 election cycles).  The first place finisher in the initial round won the runoff in 71 out of 104 races or 68%. 

I have always heard the statement that an incumbent in a runoff is in trouble.  I went back and drilled down into these 104 Texas House runoffs to determine which involved incumbents and which were open seats.  There was an incumbent in 19 of the runoffs and no incumbent in 85 of the runoffs.
The incumbent only won 6 of the 19 runoffs or 32%.  Historically, an incumbent in a runoff is in trouble.
Additionally, when you eliminate incumbent runoffs from the sample, the initial round first place finisher won 65 out of 85 runoffs or 76%.  If a candidate finished first on May 29,  the historical odds are that the candidate will go on to win the runoff 3 out of 4 times.

17 Texas House primary races will be decided in the July 31 runoff – 13 Republican and 4 Democratic.  Below is my initial assessment of these races.  The usual caveats apply, including that this is only a snapshot in time and much can and will change between now and July 31.

Office
Incumbent
Candidates
Party
Vote % 5/29
Assessment
HD11
Hopson
Toss up.
Chuck Hopson
R
47.15%
Travis Clardy
R
46.30%






HD12
New seat
Kacal is slight favorite.
Tucker Anderson
R
29.54%
Kyle Kacal
R
23.76%






HD23
Eiland
Faircloth is slight favorite.
Wayne Faircloth
R
38.60%
Bill Wallace
R
31.64%






HD24
Taylor
Bonnen is favorite.
Greg Bonnen
R
45.10%
Ryan Sitton
R
32.66%






HD26
Howard
Miller is favorite.
Rick Miller
R
40.83%
J. Chaumette
R
26.89%






HD40
Pena
Canales is favorite.
Terry Canales
D
30.45%
A. Hernandez
D
26.20%






HD43
Lozano
Toss up.
J. M. Lozano
R
44.19%
Bill Wilson
R
43.76%






HD59
Miller
Miller is slight favorite.
Sid Miller
R
42.48%
J. D. Sheffield
R
41.50%






HD67
Madden
Leach is favorite.
Jon Cole
R
32.30%
Jeff Leach
R
30.20%






HD68
Hardcastle
McKnight is favorite.
Trent McKnight
R
49.03%
Drew Springer
R
34.47%






HD88
Landtroop
Toss up.
Jim Landtroop
R
34.44%
Ken King
R
30.17%






HD91
Hancock
Sapp is slight favorite.
Ken Sapp
R
39.86%
Stephanie Klick
R
31.92%






HD95
Veasey
Collier is favorite.
Nicole Collier
D
48.20%
Jesse Gaines
D
38.42%






HD114
Hartnett
Keffer is favorite.
Bill Keffer
R
47.47%
Jason Villalba
R
41.13%






HD115
Jackson
Nguyen is slight favorite.
Steve Nguyen
R
35.04%
Bennett Ratliff
R
30.05%






HD117
Garza
Toss up.
Philip Cortez
D
35.06%
Tina Torres
D
33.99%






HD137
Hochberg
Wu is favorite.
Gene Wu
D
43.36%
Jamaal Smith
D
23.99%