I
have always heard the statement that an incumbent in a runoff is in
trouble. I went back and drilled down
into these 104 Texas House runoffs to determine which involved incumbents and
which were open seats. There was an
incumbent in 19 of the runoffs and no incumbent in 85 of the runoffs.
The
incumbent only won 6 of the 19 runoffs or 32%.
Historically, an incumbent in a runoff is in trouble.
Additionally,
when you eliminate incumbent runoffs from the sample, the initial round first
place finisher won 65 out of 85 runoffs or 76%.
If a candidate finished first on May 29,
the historical odds are that the candidate will go on to win the runoff
3 out of 4 times.17 Texas House primary races will be decided in the July 31 runoff – 13 Republican and 4 Democratic. Below is my initial assessment of these races. The usual caveats apply, including that this is only a snapshot in time and much can and will change between now and July 31.
|
Office
|
Incumbent
|
Candidates
|
Party
|
Vote % 5/29
|
Assessment
|
|
HD11
|
Hopson
|
Toss up.
|
|||
|
Chuck Hopson
|
R
|
47.15%
|
|||
|
Travis Clardy
|
R
|
46.30%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD12
|
New seat
|
Kacal is slight favorite.
|
|||
|
Tucker Anderson
|
R
|
29.54%
|
|||
|
Kyle Kacal
|
R
|
23.76%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD23
|
Eiland
|
Faircloth is slight favorite.
|
|||
|
Wayne Faircloth
|
R
|
38.60%
|
|||
|
Bill Wallace
|
R
|
31.64%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD24
|
Taylor
|
Bonnen is favorite.
|
|||
|
Greg Bonnen
|
R
|
45.10%
|
|||
|
Ryan Sitton
|
R
|
32.66%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD26
|
Howard
|
Miller is favorite.
|
|||
|
Rick Miller
|
R
|
40.83%
|
|||
|
J. Chaumette
|
R
|
26.89%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD40
|
Pena
|
Canales is favorite.
|
|||
|
Terry Canales
|
D
|
30.45%
|
|||
|
A. Hernandez
|
D
|
26.20%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD43
|
Lozano
|
Toss up.
|
|||
|
J. M. Lozano
|
R
|
44.19%
|
|||
|
Bill Wilson
|
R
|
43.76%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD59
|
Miller
|
Miller is slight favorite.
|
|||
|
Sid Miller
|
R
|
42.48%
|
|||
|
J. D. Sheffield
|
R
|
41.50%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD67
|
Madden
|
Leach is favorite.
|
|||
|
Jon Cole
|
R
|
32.30%
|
|||
|
Jeff Leach
|
R
|
30.20%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD68
|
Hardcastle
|
McKnight is favorite.
|
|||
|
Trent McKnight
|
R
|
49.03%
|
|||
|
Drew Springer
|
R
|
34.47%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD88
|
Landtroop
|
Toss up.
|
|||
|
Jim Landtroop
|
R
|
34.44%
|
|||
|
Ken King
|
R
|
30.17%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD91
|
Hancock
|
Sapp is slight favorite.
|
|||
|
Ken Sapp
|
R
|
39.86%
|
|||
|
Stephanie Klick
|
R
|
31.92%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD95
|
Veasey
|
Collier is favorite.
|
|||
|
Nicole Collier
|
D
|
48.20%
|
|||
|
Jesse Gaines
|
D
|
38.42%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD114
|
Hartnett
|
Keffer is favorite.
|
|||
|
Bill Keffer
|
R
|
47.47%
|
|||
|
Jason Villalba
|
R
|
41.13%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD115
|
Jackson
|
Nguyen is slight favorite.
|
|||
|
Steve Nguyen
|
R
|
35.04%
|
|||
|
Bennett Ratliff
|
R
|
30.05%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD117
|
Garza
|
Toss up.
|
|||
|
Philip Cortez
|
D
|
35.06%
|
|||
|
Tina Torres
|
D
|
33.99%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HD137
|
Hochberg
|
Wu is favorite.
|
|||
|
Gene Wu
|
D
|
43.36%
|
|||
|
Jamaal Smith
|
D
|
23.99%
|
