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Thursday, July 12, 2012

Polls Show Cruz Leading Dewhurst



Polls Show Cruz Leading Dewhurst
Four polls have been released in the last week (two today) regarding the July 31 Texas Senate runoff.  They are:
Date
Cruz
Dewhurst
Margin
Pollster
Notes
7/6
49
40
Cruz +9
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
Cruz internal poll






7/11
42
50
Dewhurst +8
Baselice & Associates
Dewhurst internal poll






7/12
47
38
Cruz +9
Wenzel Strategies
Released by Citizens United Political Victory Fund, which is supporting Cruz






7/12
49
44
Cruz +5
Public Policy Polling
National polling firm






Average
46.75
43
Cruz +3.75



Mail-in ballots are being received daily and early voting begins July 23.  Estimates of turnout range from 700,000 to 1 million (1.4 million voted in the first round).  I have seen estimates of mail-in and early votes comprising as much as 70% of the total vote.
Cruz ran stronger on election day than in he did in the early voting leading up to the May 29 primary, and Cruz’s momentum appears to be carrying over into the runoff.  Club for Growth just purchased $1.5 million in television advertising time and is airing an attack ad against Dewhurst.
Although this remains a close and competitive race, Lt. Gov. Dewhurst clearly has his work cut out for him.