Polls Show Cruz Leading Dewhurst
Four polls have been released in the last week (two today) regarding the July 31 Texas Senate runoff. They are:
|
Date
|
Cruz
|
Dewhurst
|
Margin
|
Pollster
|
Notes
|
|
7/6
|
49
|
40
|
Cruz +9
|
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
|
Cruz internal poll
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7/11
|
42
|
50
|
Dewhurst +8
|
Baselice & Associates
|
Dewhurst internal poll
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7/12
|
47
|
38
|
Cruz +9
|
Wenzel Strategies
|
Released by Citizens United Political Victory Fund, which is supporting Cruz
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7/12
|
49
|
44
|
Cruz +5
|
Public Policy Polling
|
National polling firm
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average
|
46.75
|
43
|
Cruz +3.75
|
|
|
Mail-in ballots are being received daily and early voting begins July 23. Estimates of turnout range from 700,000 to 1 million (1.4 million voted in the first round). I have seen estimates of mail-in and early votes comprising as much as 70% of the total vote.
Cruz ran stronger on election day than in he did in the early voting leading up to the May 29 primary, and Cruz’s momentum appears to be carrying over into the runoff. Club for Growth just purchased $1.5 million in television advertising time and is airing an attack ad against Dewhurst.
Although this remains a close and competitive race, Lt. Gov. Dewhurst clearly has his work cut out for him.
