We are less than six weeks from the November 6 general election. Nationally, President Obama is beginning to open statistically significant leads in the swing states and the race is tilting towards him. The President has opened up a 5.4% average lead in Ohio over Governor Romney according to Real Clear Politics. No Republican has ever been elected President without carrying Ohio.
The race remains close, however, and is far from over. Nevertheless, the President is the clear favorite to reelected: 74.9% probability according to Intrade; 81.9% according to FiveThirtyEight.
Democrats are gaining ground in U. S. Senate and House races as well. In Texas, the polling is beginning to show an uptick for Democratic legislative candidates. We are also seeing the Libertarians poll strongly in Texas this cycle. Normally, a Libertarian candidate will pull 2% to 3% of the vote in a competitive race between a Republican and a Democrat. In 2012, we are seeing the Libertarians in the 3% to 5%+ range.
Every cycle, there are a handful of races where the Libertarian candidate receives more votes than the margin of victory for the Democrat over the Republican.
Year
|
Dist.
|
Candidates
|
Party
|
Winner
|
Vote %
|
2006
| |||||
HD 17
|
Tim Kleinschmidt
|
REP
|
47.88%
| ||
Robby Cook (i)
|
DEM
|
X
|
48.91%
| ||
Rod Gibbs
|
LIB
|
3.19%
| |||
HD 32
|
Gene Seaman (i)
|
REP
|
46.15%
| ||
Juan Garcia
|
DEM
|
X
|
48.25%
| ||
Lenard Nelson
|
LIB
|
5.58%
| |||
HD 93
|
Toby Goodman (i)
|
REP
|
46.94%
| ||
Paula Pierson
|
DEM
|
X
|
49.60%
| ||
Max Koch
|
LIB
|
3.44%
| |||
HD 118
|
George Antuna
|
REP
|
44.3%
| ||
Joe Farias
|
DEM
|
X
|
48.2%
| ||
James Thompson
|
LIB
|
7.5%
| |||
2008
| |||||
SD 10
|
Kim Brimer (i)
|
REP
|
47.52%
| ||
Wendy Davis
|
DEM
|
X
|
49.91%
| ||
Richard Cross
|
LIB
|
2.56%
| |||
HD 11
|
Brian Walker
|
REP
|
49.05%
| ||
Chuck Hopson
|
DEM
|
X
|
49.28%
| ||
Paul Bryan
|
LIB
|
1.65%
| |||
HD 105
|
L. Harper-Brown
|
REP
|
X
|
48.72%
| |
Bob Romano
|
DEM
|
48.67%
| |||
James Baird
|
LIB
|
2.60%
| |||
2010
| |||||
HD 48
|
Dan Neil
|
REP
|
48.51%
| ||
Donna Howard (i)
|
DEM
|
X
|
48.53%
| ||
Ben Easton
|
LIB
|
2.94%
|
Philosophically, one would believe that if a Libertarian candidate is not on the ballot, the Libertarian vote is much more likely to go to the Republican. In general, Republican legislative candidates did a good job of getting Libertarians not to file or to withdraw from the ballot this cycle. Below are what I consider the most competitive Texas legislative races.
Dist.
|
Republican
|
Democrat
|
Libertarian
|
Green
|
ORVS
|
ODVS
|
SD 10
|
Mark Shelton
|
Wendy Davis (i)
|
55.2%
|
46.7%
| ||
HD 12
|
Kyle Kacal
|
Robert Stern
|
59.9%
|
44.0%
| ||
23
|
Wayne Faircloth
|
Craig Eiland (i)
|
51.0%
|
52.4%
| ||
26
|
Rick Miller
|
Vy Nguyen
|
65.8%
|
36.1%
| ||
34
|
Connie Scott (i)
|
Abel Herrero
|
47.1%
|
56.8%
| ||
43
|
J. M. Lozano (i)
|
Y. Gonzalez Toureilles
|
51.7%
|
52.4%
| ||
45
|
Jason Isaac (i)
|
John Adams
|
Yes
|
57.5%
|
45.4%
| |
47
|
Paul Workman (i)
|
Chris Frandsen
|
Yes
|
60.4%
|
41.6%
| |
48
|
Donna Howard (i)
|
Robert Thomas
|
Yes
|
43.9%
|
58.2%
| |
54
|
Jimmie Don Aycock (i)
|
Claudia Brown
|
57.0%
|
46.8%
| ||
78
|
Dee Margo (i)
|
Joe Moody
|
47.0%
|
56.0%
| ||
85
|
Phil Stephenson
|
Dora Olivo
|
59.9%
|
43.1%
| ||
102
|
Stefani Carter (i)
|
Rich Hancock
|
56.0%
|
46.1%
| ||
105
|
L. Harper Brown (i)
|
Rosemary Robbins
|
Yes
|
55.3%
|
47.2%
| |
107
|
Kenneth Sheets (i)
|
Robert Miklos
|
54.9%
|
47.5%
| ||
114
|
Jason Villalba
|
Carol Kent
|
56.7%
|
45.1%
| ||
117
|
John Garza (i)
|
Philip Cortez
|
50.8%
|
52.0%
| ||
134
|
Sarah Davis (i)
|
Ann Johnson
|
58.1%
|
42.9%
| ||
136
|
Tony Dale
|
Matt Stillwell
|
Yes
|
59.1%
|
43.2%
| |
144
|
David Pineda
|
Mary Ann Perez
|
Yes
|
49.2%
|
53.4%
| |
149
|
Diane Williams
|
Hubert Vo (i)
|
46.7%
|
55.4%
|
Libertarians in the Austin area generally run stronger than any other area of the state, and this could be problematic for Isaac and Dale. The Libertarian in HD 144 further strengthens Mary Ann Perez’ position. However, the lack of Libertarians in the DFW house races and SD 10 is a significant benefit for the Republicans. Finally, the Green candidate could provide the margin of victory for Harper-Brown in a close race, presuming all of the Green vote would otherwise be Democratic. A Green candidate can be expected to receive about 1% of the vote in a legislative race.
Although there are not that many competitive legislative races in Texas this year, the presence or absence of a Libertarian on the ballot is likely to have a major impact on the end result.
