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Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Partisan Composition of 83rd Texas House

When the 82nd Regular Session ended, there were 101 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Texas House.  Subsequently, Rep. J. M. Lozano switched parties increasing the Republican caucus to 102 members and decreasing the number of Democrats to 48.
The Democrats have already picked up 3 seats through redistricting, because no Republicans filed in Districts 35, 40 or 101 (see chart below).  The question is how many more seats will the Democrats pick up in the 150 member House?  The Republicans believe their number of members will end up in the mid-90’s; the Democrats believe they can increase their numbers to 60+.
Below are the ORVS (Optimal Republican Voting Strength) and ODVS (Optimal Democrat Voting Strength) for the competitive districts.  These ratings are based on a combination of the 2008 and 2010 election results, and represent the optimal percentage vote a strong Republican or strong Democrat should theoretically receive in the district.
At this point, I see the Democrats picking up +/- 7 seats giving them 55 seats to 95 for the Republicans.  Below are what I judge to be the 12 most competitive races in the Texas House and my current assessment.  If the Democrats are to get to 60+, they will have to sweep virtually all of these races.
Dist.
Republican
Democrat
ORVS
ODVS
D Pickup
Assessment
35
None
Oscar Longoria
37.5%
64.8%
1.0
Previously Rep. Aliseda's district #
40
None
Terry Canales
25.5%
77.0%
1.0
Incumbent is Rep. Aaron Pena
101
None
Chris Turner
39.3%
62.1%
1.0
Previously Rep. Burkett's district #
Competitive
Seats




23
W. Faircloth
Craig Eiland (i)
51.0%
52.4%
Leans Eiland
34
Connie Scott (i)
Abel Herrero
47.1%
56.8%
1.0
Leans Herrero
43
J. M. Lozano (i)
GonzalezToureilles
51.7%
52.4%
0.5
Toss up
78
Dee Margo (i)
Joe Moody
47.0%
56.0%
1.0
Leans Moody
102
S. Carter (i)
Rich Hancock
56.0%
46.1%
Likely Carter
105
Harper Brown(i)
Rosemary Robbins
55.3%
47.2%
Leans Harper Brown
107
K. Sheets (i)
Robert Miklos
54.9%
47.5%
Leans Sheets
114
Jason Villalba
Carol Kent
56.7%
45.1%
Likely Villalba
117
John Garza (i)
Philip Cortez
50.8%
52.0%
0.5
Toss up
134
Sarah Davis (i)
Ann Johnson
58.1%
42.9%
Likely Davis
144
David Pineda
Mary Ann Perez
49.2%
53.4%
1.0
Leans Perez
149
Diane Williams
Hubert Vo (i)
46.7%
55.4%
Leans Vo
7.0