When the 82nd Regular Session ended, there were 101 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Texas House. Subsequently, Rep. J. M. Lozano switched parties increasing the Republican caucus to 102 members and decreasing the number of Democrats to 48.
The Democrats have already picked up 3 seats through redistricting, because no Republicans filed in Districts 35, 40 or 101 (see chart below). The question is how many more seats will the Democrats pick up in the 150 member House? The Republicans believe their number of members will end up in the mid-90’s; the Democrats believe they can increase their numbers to 60+.
Below are the ORVS (Optimal Republican Voting Strength) and ODVS (Optimal Democrat Voting Strength) for the competitive districts. These ratings are based on a combination of the 2008 and 2010 election results, and represent the optimal percentage vote a strong Republican or strong Democrat should theoretically receive in the district.
At this point, I see the Democrats picking up +/- 7 seats giving them 55 seats to 95 for the Republicans. Below are what I judge to be the 12 most competitive races in the Texas House and my current assessment. If the Democrats are to get to 60+, they will have to sweep virtually all of these races.
Dist.
|
Republican
|
Democrat
|
ORVS
|
ODVS
|
D Pickup
|
Assessment
|
35
|
None
|
Oscar Longoria
|
37.5%
|
64.8%
|
1.0
|
Previously Rep. Aliseda's district #
|
40
|
None
|
Terry Canales
|
25.5%
|
77.0%
|
1.0
|
Incumbent is Rep. Aaron Pena
|
101
|
None
|
Chris Turner
|
39.3%
|
62.1%
|
1.0
|
Previously Rep. Burkett's district #
|
Competitive
|
Seats
| |||||
23
|
W. Faircloth
|
Craig Eiland (i)
|
51.0%
|
52.4%
|
Leans Eiland
| |
34
|
Connie Scott (i)
|
Abel Herrero
|
47.1%
|
56.8%
|
1.0
|
Leans Herrero
|
43
|
J. M. Lozano (i)
|
GonzalezToureilles
|
51.7%
|
52.4%
|
0.5
|
Toss up
|
78
|
Dee Margo (i)
|
Joe Moody
|
47.0%
|
56.0%
|
1.0
|
Leans Moody
|
102
|
S. Carter (i)
|
Rich Hancock
|
56.0%
|
46.1%
|
Likely Carter
| |
105
|
Harper Brown(i)
|
Rosemary Robbins
|
55.3%
|
47.2%
|
Leans Harper Brown
| |
107
|
K. Sheets (i)
|
Robert Miklos
|
54.9%
|
47.5%
|
Leans Sheets
| |
114
|
Jason Villalba
|
Carol Kent
|
56.7%
|
45.1%
|
Likely Villalba
| |
117
|
John Garza (i)
|
Philip Cortez
|
50.8%
|
52.0%
|
0.5
|
Toss up
|
134
|
Sarah Davis (i)
|
Ann Johnson
|
58.1%
|
42.9%
|
Likely Davis
| |
144
|
David Pineda
|
Mary Ann Perez
|
49.2%
|
53.4%
|
1.0
|
Leans Perez
|
149
|
Diane Williams
|
Hubert Vo (i)
|
46.7%
|
55.4%
|
Leans Vo
| |
7.0
|
