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Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Early Vote Analysis

An reputable analysis of early vote for competitive races in Texas shows the following partisan affiliation of the early voters.

District
Republican
Democrat
Republican
Democrat
Independent
HD 23
Wayne Faircloth
Rep. Craig Eiland
36%
45%
19%
HD 34
Rep. Connie Scott
Abel Herrero
20%
61%
20%
HD 45
Rep. Jason Isaac
John Adams
46%
29%
25%
HD 54
Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock
Claudia Brown
48%
30%
23%
HD 78
Rep. Dee Margo
Joe Moody
24%
52%
23%
HD 102
Rep. Stefani Carter
Rich Hancock
38%
33%
19%
HD 105
Rep. Linda Harper Brown
Rosemary Robbins
45%
34%
22%
HD 107
Rep. Kenneth Sheets
Robert Miklos
47%
36%
18%
HD 114
Jason Villalba
Carol Kent
50%
35%
15%
HD 117
Rep. John Garza
Philip Cortez
33%
52%
25%
HD 134
Rep. Sarah Davis
Ann Johnson
45%
34%
21%
HD 136
Tony Dale
Matt Stillwell
51%
26%
23%
HD 144
David Pineda
Mary Ann Perez
35%
43%
22%
HD 149
Dianne Williams
Rep. Hubert Vo
28%
38%
34%
SD 10
Dr. Mark Shelton
Sen. Wendy Davis
48%
36%
16%
CD 14
Rep. Randy Weber
Nick Lampson
41%
42%
17%

I do not have good data on HD 43 (Lozano) or CD 23 (Canseco).

It is about what I expected.  The Democrats appear poised to pick the following Republican seats:  Scott; Margo; Garza; and Pineda (Legler).  Assuming that Sen. Davis is receiving some crossover Republican vote, that race is going to be as close as expected.  However, Dr. Shelton has got to be happy with what he is seeing.  The Weber/Lampson race is going to go down to the wire.