Search

Monday, November 18, 2013

First Look at March 4, 2014, Statewide Primaries

Blogging political predictions corresponds to performing the flying trapeze without a safety net.  Getting it right is exciting and satisfying.  Nevertheless, many in the audience attend and remain in rapt attention waiting for you to lose your grasp and fall, which you inevitably will at some point.

I got it right in the City of Houston mayor’s race from start to finish, correctly predicting that Mayor Parker would win without a runoff.  I was correct when I stated that Sen. Davis would run for Governor.  I fist pump these successes, because it is time to screw up my courage and climb back out on the trapeze.  

A week is a lifetime in politics, and we have thirteen weeks before early voting begins.  Much will change.  However, the following analysis is where I see the races today based on taking a snapshot of each race and projecting forward the trend lines.  The field will be set when filing for statewide offices closes at 6 p.m. on December 9.

Governor
Attorney General Greg Abbott will be the Republican nominee and Sen. Wendy Davis will be the Democratic nominee.  Abbott starts out as an 8 to 10 point favorite for the general election.

Lieutenant Governor
The Republican field appears headed to a May 27 runoff with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the lead.  The race for second place currently has Sen. Dan Patrick in front, with Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples following.  Patrick will take fire from multiple directions as Dewhurst pushes to avoid a runoff, and Staples and Patterson seek to slip past Patrick into the runoff.  At this point, I see a runoff between Dewhurst and Patrick.

Sen. Leticia Van de Puttee will be the Democratic nominee.

Attorney General
The Republican field consists of Rep. Dan Branch, Sen. Ken Paxton and Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman.  There will be a runoff, and any two of the three can make it.  Smitherman currently has a lead in the polls, with Paxton in second.  Branch will have the most money, and the question is whether it will enable him to make the runoff.  At this point I see a runoff between Smitherman and Paxton, but Branch is very much in the game.  (Disclosure:  I serve as Smitherman’s campaign treasurer).

Sam Houston appears be the Democratic nominee, although Sen. Carlos Uresti is still considering the race.  However, at the end of the day, I don’t believe Sen. Uresti will run.

Comptroller
I foresee a Republican primary runoff between Sen. Glenn Hegar and Debra Medina.  Medina has good residual name identification from her run for Governor in 2010, and Hegar continues to assemble a strong coalition of establishment conservatives and tea party conservatives.  Rep. Harvey Hilderbran will need to put up strong fundraising numbers on his January 15 report to remain competitive in this race.  (Disclosure:  I am assisting Hegar with his fundraising.)

Mike Collier will be the Democratic nominee.  He is a strong, qualified candidate, but appears to be running at least one cycle too early.

Land Commissioner
George P. Bush will be the Republican nominee and John Cook, former Mayor of El Paso, will be the Democratic nominee.

Agriculture Commissioner
The major Republican candidates are Uvalde Mayor J. Allen Carnes, former Rep. Tommy Merritt, former Rep. Sid Miller and SREC member Eric Opiela.  Nolan Ryan has ruled out a run.  The big question will be how much of his considerable fortune will Merritt spend on the race?  If he spends a couple of million dollars he could be a factor.  Otherwise, I anticipate a runoff between Miller and Opiela.

Kinky Friedman is the likely Democratic nominee, although efforts are underway to find a Democrat who can beat him in the primary.

Railroad Commissioner
Former Rep. Wayne Christian will probably lead a crowded Republican field into a runoff, with his likely opponent being either Malachi Boyles or Ryan Sitton.


Steve Brown, former Fort Bend County Democratic Chairman, will be the Democratic nominee.

Updated 11/18 to disclose that I am assisting Hegar with his fundraising.

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Nolan Ryan Considering Run for Texas Agriculture Commissioner

Baseball legend Nolan Ryan is considering seeking the Republican nomination for Texas Agriculture Commissioner.  Ryan retires effective today as CEO of the Texas Rangers and has sold his ownership interest in the club.

He currently serves as Statewide Chairman of current Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples’ campaign for Lieutenant Governor.

Ryan first looked at running for Agriculture Commissioner in 1989 against Jim Hightower in the 1990 election.  Ultimately, then Rep. Rick Perry switched from Democrat to Republican and filed against Hightower, and the rest, as they say, is history.


Ryan would be joining a crowded Republican field currently consisting of former Rep. Sid Miller; SREC Member Eric Opiela; Uvalde Mayor J. Allen Carnes; and former Rep. Tommy Merritt.  Rep. Cecil Bell is also considering the race.  Author and musician Kinky Friedman has announced for the Democratic nomination.

10/31 - Updated to reflect that Tommy Merritt is also running for Ag Commissioner.

Monday, October 28, 2013

Election Potpourri

Early voting is heavy in Harris County, more than doubling what it was through the first seven days in 2011.  With 52,170 votes already cast, you can see that, as expected, Harris County will disproportionately affect the outcome of the statewide constitutional amendment propositions.  In 2011, 695,052 Texans voted in the constitutional amendment election, with 152,597 votes being cast in Harris County or 22%.  In 2013, it appears the Harris County may approach 30% of the statewide total.

An analysis of the City of Houston vote by Kyle Johnston of Johnston Campaign estimates that through the first five days, the ethnic breakdown of those casting Houston ballots is African American 32%, Hispanic 12%, Asian 1%, and Other (Anglo) 55%.  Mr. Johnston also finds that of the City of Houston voters, 61% have a Democratic primary history, 34% have a Republican primary history, and 5% have no primary history.  This partisan breakdown provides further evidence that the time has passed when a candidate running as a Republican can be elected Mayor of Houston.

In the current mayoral election, Mayor Parker’s polling is showing her pulling away from Dr. Hall.  According to her internal polls, the undecideds are breaking her way and Dr. Hall’s pro forma television buy is not sufficient to keep him in the game.  Either the Mayor’s polls are wrong or she is going to win without a runoff.

I also recently reviewed a couple of Republican primary polls for Texas races.  The polls continue to show that the number one issue for Texas Republican primary voters is illegal immigration.  That is why you are seeing Republican candidates strenuously oppose in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, because the Republican primary base demands that they crack down on illegal immigration.  However, the hard facts of demography tell us that Hispanic voters will ultimately become the majority in Texas.  The Republicans truly are between a primary rock and a demographic hard place.

Lastly, it has been a good couple of weeks for Sen. Glenn Hegar in his race for State Comptroller.  He has recently been endorsed by both Comptroller Susan Combs (an establishment conservative) and Texans for Fiscal Responsibility (a movement conservative).  With Debra Medina’s renewed focus on the race, Rep. Harvey Hilderbran appears to be in a difficult position.  On the positive side, Rep. Hilderbran was recently endorsed by Brint Ryan, the Founder of Ryan LLC, which has a huge tax practice before the Comptroller’s office.  Mr. Ryan apparently has a different analysis of the likely outcome of the race than current conventional wisdom.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Two Minute Warning


Early voting starts Monday in the Houston mayor’s race.  When I last updated the race, it was halftime and Mayor Annise Parker was leading Dr. Ben Hall 20 - 3.  We have now reached the two minute warning.

Mayor Parker has the lead, the ball and the wind at her back.  The outcome of the contest is clear and Parker will win.  The only question is whether she will cover the point spread and win without a runoff.

The point spread to win without a runoff is a large one (19 points in my opinion) because there are nine candidates in the race.  I have the Mayor ahead 27 to 10 and needing one more score.  Dr. Hall appears to have thrown in the towel and has pulled his starters (and his television ads).  Mayor Parker, on the other hand, has left her starters in and continues to throw downfield with hard hitting television ads.  Parker is clearly going to leave it all on the field in the final two minutes and is trying end the contest November 5 without a runoff.

At this point, I believe the Mayor has a better than 50% chance of winning without a runoff.  Polling I have seen shows Parker projected to win between 50% and 52% of the vote; Hall at 30% to 35%; and the other 7 candidates at 10% to 15%.  Of course, the only poll that counts are the results on election day and a lot can happen in 20 days.

Nevertheless, political fans are already looking ahead to the 2015 mayoral season.  The initial rankings show three tier one candidates projected to run for mayor in 2015:  Council Member Stephen Costello; Sheriff Adrian Garcia; and Representative Sylvester Turner.  Other possible candidates receiving consideration in the 2015 rankings are:  Chris Bell; Brad Bradford; Gilbert Garcia; Ed Gonzalez; Ronald Green; Ben Hall; Sue Lovell; Vidal Martinez; James Rodriguez; and Orlando Sanchez.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Preview of November 2014 Legislative Races


Optimal Republican Voting Strength (ORVS) is a method of comparing legislative districts on an apples-to-apples basis for purposes of assessing the generic Republican voting strength of the district.  Although there is a strong correlation between ORVS and actual results, it is less of a predictor and more of a metric for ranking the Republican strength of the districts.  Mike Baselice of Baselice & Associates has computed the 2014 ORVS using the following formula:  [(2010 Perry %) + (2 x 2010 Abbott %) + (2012 Hecht %) + (2012 Romney % + 2012 Cruz %)] / 6 = ORVS.  

Democrats use the Democratic Performance Index (DPI).  I have not seen the 2014 DPI numbers, although they have been described to me.

There appear to be 15 competitive House districts in Texas for the general election, and 1 competitive Senate district.  They are:


HD
Incumbent
2014 ORVS
MQS Hit
54
Aycock - R
59.6%
Yes
45
Isaac - R
59.6%
No
112
Button - R 
58.7%
Yes
134
Davis - R
58.3%
Yes
114
Villalba - R
57.9%
Yes
102
Open (Carter - R)
56.7%
No
105
Harper-Brown - R
56.2%
Yes
113
Burkett - R
55.8%
Yes
43
Lozano - R
55.3%
No
107
Sheets - R
55.2%
Yes
23
Open (Eiland - D)
54.5%
No
117
Cortez - D
52.0%
No
144
Perez - D
50.0%
No
78
Moody - D
49.4%
No
34
Herrero - D
49.0%
No



SD
Incumbent
2014 ORVS
MQS Hit
10
Open (Davis - D)
56.4%
No


The Republican targets of opportunity are the open seats HD 23 (Eiland) in Galveston and SD 10 (Davis) in Fort Worth.

The Democrats will be focusing their fire on the open seat in HD 102 (Carter), and Reps. Harper-Brown, Burkett, Lozano and Sheets.

Michael Quinn Sullivan (MQS) and Empower Texas are also ably aiding the Democrats in their pick up efforts by mailing “F” report cards into the districts of Aycock, Button, Davis, Villalba, Harper-Brown (received a D-), Burkett and Sheets, softening them up for the general election.

At this point, I would say the betting line for the 2015 House opens  at between +1 R per the Republicans, and +4 D per the Democrats.  In my opinion, the Republicans are favored to pick up the Davis senate seat.  This would result in 54 to 59 House Democrats next session, and 11 Democratic senators.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Thirty Pieces of Silver


UPDATED 10/7/13:  See response of Jeff Rotkoff at end.

An ancient Arabian proverb says the enemy of my enemy is my friend.  The concept is that two parties, opposed in most respects, unite against a common opponent.  In Texas, it has aligned Steve Mostyn, a passionate liberal and prolific contributor to Democrats, with Debra Medina, a libertarian Republican now contemplating a run for governor as an independent in 2014.

Mostyn began supporting Medina because she opposed Gov. Rick Perry in the 2010 Republican primary.  Mostyn also created the Back to Basics PAC and contributed almost $4 million in 2010 to attack Gov. Perry.

Medina’s political organization is We Texans, a 501(c)(4) corporation focusing on private property, state sovereignty, gun ownership and illegal immigration.  The identities of donors to 501(c)(4) organizations do not have to be disclosed. These organizations can engage in unlimited lobbying activities, and some campaign activity, so long as it is not their primary activity.

In 2010, Medina received 18.5% of the vote and finished last in the Republican primary for Governor to Gov. Perry’s 51% and Sen. Hutchison’s 30%.  Medina has a definite following, but she appears a long way from being able to win a statewide Republican primary.

Medina is currently seeking the Republican nomination for Comptroller.   Medina’s race is not going well, as Sen. Glenn Hegar appears to be uniting the movement conservative and establishment conservative wings of the Republican party behind his candidacy.  For example, he was recently endorsed by Tarrant County Reps. Capriglione, Goldman, Klick, Krause and Zedler; and Ned Holmes is hosting a major Houston fundraiser for Hegar this month.

However, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram Medina “has received millions of dollars in pledges on the condition that she instead run for governor as an independent.”  It doesn’t take a Rice graduate to figure out the source of those pledges.  Steve Mostyn and his wife, Amber, are fervent backers of Sen. Wendy Davis and her gubernatorial campaign.  It is a time-honored political tactic to entice other candidates into a race to siphon votes from the frontrunner, in this case Attorney General Greg Abbott.

Ms. Medina would do well to remember the remorse of Judas after accepting the thirty pieces of silver.  Instead of betraying her political principles, she should wait and run for an office she can win:  The special election for SD 18 assuming that Hegar is elected Comptroller.


Response 10/7/13:

Mr. Miller - 

My name is Jeff Rotkoff and I am a political consultant who works full time with Steve and Amber Mostyn. 

I want to state unambiguously to you that your post claiming the Mostyns have committed financial or political support to Debra Medina -- should she choose to run for Governor in 2014 -- is incorrect. 
 
To be clear, the Mostyns have not spoken with Ms. Medina about any campaign for any office in 2014. Neither they, nor I on their behalf, have suggested that they would provide any kind of financial or political support to Ms. Medina in a 2014 gubernatorial run. Further, I do not believe Ms. Mostyn has ever spoken with Ms. Medina. The last time Mr. Mostyn spoke with her would have been in the form of a passing "hello" while walking through the halls of the Capitol sometime earlier this year. A 5 to 10 second exchange, at best. 
 
I hope you will correct your post. If you choose not to do so, I hope you will acknowledge that your claims are directly disputed by those with actual, direct knowledge as to the Mostyns political activity.
 
Respectfully, 
 
Jeff Rotkoff

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Clash of Cardinals


Writing a $95 billion two-year state budget takes more time than the 140 days available in the Texas legislature’s regular session.

Preparation of the next budget (FY 2016 - 2017) will actually begin early in 2014 when each state agency develops a strategic plan based on instructions issued by the Governor’s office and the Legislative Budget Board (LBB).  After developing its strategic plan, an agency will then submit a Legislative Appropriation Request (LAR) in the spring of 2014.  LBB will hold hearings with each agency next summer regarding its LAR, and in the fall LBB will prepare a general appropriations bill draft.

The LBB is jointly chaired by the Lieutenant Governor and the Speaker, and the Chair of  the House Committee on Appropriations, House Committee on Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committee are automatic members of the LBB.  Two other House members are appointed by the Speaker, and three other Senate members are appointed by the Lieutenant Governor.  The current legislative members of the LBB are Reps. Pitts, Hilderbran, Branch and Turner; and Sens. Williams, Duncan, Hinojosa and Zaffirini.

All four LBB Senators drew a four-year term and are eligible to continue to serve on the LBB through next session.  However, three of the four House members will not be returning for the 84th Legislature:  Appropriations Chair Jim Pitts is retiring; Ways and Means Chair Harvey Hilderbran is running for Comptroller; and Rep. Dan Branch is running for Attorney General.

Speaker Straus will appoint new committee chairs in January 2015 after the 84th Legislature convenes.  However, because of the seminal role of the House Appropriations Chair in drafting the state budget, the Speaker really needs to anoint someone by January 2014 as the next Appropriations Chair.  Otherwise, power will begin to shift to the Senate in the budget writing process because Chairman Pitts inevitably will be viewed as a lame duck by his senate colleagues and LBB staff.

There are three contenders for House Appropriations Chair:  Rep. Drew Darby (R - San Angelo); Rep. John Otto (R - Dayton); and Rep. John Zerwas (R - Fulshear).  Each is currently a powerful member of House Appropriations and chairs  a standing subcommittee.  In Washington, D.C. parlance, they would be known as “Cardinals” because of the power they possess over the budget.

Initially, it was thought that matters would fall neatly into place and that Rep. Darby would become Chair of Appropriations; Rep. Otto would become Chair of Ways and Means; and Rep. Zerwas would run for the State Senate in a special election to replace Sen. Glenn Hegar if he is elected Comptroller in November 2014.  Now, however, Rep. Otto has made it clear that he prefers to chair Appropriations, and Rep. Zerwas has expressed his desire to chair Appropriations and not run for the Senate.

An intense behind the scenes campaign is underway among the three Cardinals to receive the nod from the Speaker as the next Appropriations Chair.  The winner will likely not be announced by an official appointment, but rather will simply begin attending budget meetings with the Speaker’s imprimatur.  All appropriation eyes are now on the second floor of the west wing as we wait for the white smoke.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Callegari to Retire

State Rep. Bill Callegari (R - Houston), who turns 72 today, will not seek reelection to the Texas House in 2014.  First elected in 2000, Callegari serves as Chair of the House Pensions Committee.  His decision brings to 12 so far the number of House members who will not return for the 84th Legislature as follows:

  • HD 10 - Jim Pitts; not seeking reelection
  • HD 16 - Brandon Creighton; candidate for Agriculture Commissioner
  • HD 23 - Craig Eiland; not seeking reelection
  • HD 50 - Mark Strama; resigned
  • HD 53 - Harvey Hilderbran; candidate for Comptroller
  • HD 58 - Rob Orr; not seeking reelection
  • HD 66 - Van Taylor; candidate for State Senate
  • HD 81 - Tryon Lewis; not seeking reelection
  • HD 102 - Stefani Carter; candidate for Railroad Commissioner
  • HD 108 - Dan Branch; candidate for Attorney General
  • HD 129 - John Davis; not seeking reelection
  • HD 132 - Bill Callegari; not seeking reelection

Sunday, September 22, 2013

2014 Texas Democratic Ticket


Sen. Wendy Davis continues to prepare to announce her candidacy for Governor as a Democrat on October 3. 

Conditioned on her running, you are beginning to see the Democratic ticket fill in around her.  Sen. Leticia Van de Putte will likely run for Lieutenant Governor, and Sen. Carlos Uresti is giving strong consideration to running for Attorney General.  Sen. Jose Rodriguez has also been discussed as an Attorney General candidate.

Van de Putte, Uresti and Rodriguez all drew four-year terms in the Texas Senate, and therefore can run for higher office without having to give up their Senate seat.  This is different from Texas House members who have two-year terms and would have to relinquish their seat to run.  So far, no Texas House Democrats have been willing to take the up or out statewide plunge, although Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer has not ruled it out.

Two other Democrats have indicated they will run statewide.  Michael Collier, a Houston accountant, will run for Comptroller; and former El Paso Mayor John Cook will run for Land Commissioner.

I have not seen a strong Democrat surface to take on U. S. Sen. John Cornyn, who will be the first name on the 2014 ballot.  One of the difficulties is money.  Federal races are subject to contribution limits of $2,600 per person and $5,000 per PAC, whereas Texas state races have no contribution limits.  For example, Fort Worth investor Sid Bass recently gave Sen. Davis $100,000, and Attorney General Abbott has numerous $100,000 contributors.  It is easier to raise money for a non-federal race.

Additionally, U. S. Senate Democrats are playing prevent defense nationally in an environment where most pundits believe the Republicans have a credible chance to pick up the six seats necessary to take control of the U. S. Senate.  There is simply no Democratic national money to spare for a long-shot U. S. Senate race in Texas.

The legal filing period for Texas federal and state offices opens November 9 and closes December 9.  For the Democrats, the de facto filing period opens October 3 when Sen. Davis formally announces her candidacy for Governor.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

City of Houston Mayoral Runoff?


Eight candidates have filed to oppose Mayor Annise Parker in the November 5 City of Houston general election.  The last time there were nine candidates for Mayor was in 2003, when Mayor Bill White was elected for the first time.

Many people assume that because nine candidates are on the ballot, Mayor Parker will automatically be forced into a runoff because each candidate will get at least 1% to 2% of the vote.  That is not necessarily true.  In the November 4, 2003, election, Mayor White received 37.54%; County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez received 32.78%; and Rep. Sylvester Turner received 29.02%.  The other six candidates each received from 0.06% to 0.13% for a combined total of 0.63% of the vote -- less than 1% of the vote for six candidates.

In the November 4, 1997, election there were eight candidates on the ballot for Mayor.  Mayor Lee Brown received 42.26%; Rob Mosbacher received 28.84%; the next three candidates received a combined 27.42%; and the final three candidates received respectively 1.21%; 0.19%; and 0.08%.

Looking at these two elections, we know that unknown and unfunded candidates can draw minuscule vote percentages.  However, in 2011, five unfunded challengers to Mayor Parker received a combined 49.22% of the vote.

Mayor Parker has one politically significant challenger this time:  Former City Attorney Ben Hall.  If there is a runoff, it will be with Mr. Hall.  The question is whether the seven other candidates will pull enough votes to force a runoff.  None of the other seven have held elective office, and they had only spent a combined $24,057 as shown on the July 15 finance reports.  Will the election this November be like 2003 when the six unknown candidates received less than 1% of the vote, or will it be like 2011 when the five unknown candidates received 49.22% of the vote?

If no candidate receives 50% +1 of the vote on November 5, a runoff election will be required.  State law provides that City Council will canvas (i.e. count and report) the vote not earlier than the 8th or later than the 11th day after the election.  Not later than the fifth day after the canvas, City Council shall order the runoff election.  The runoff shall be held not earlier than 20 nor more than 45 days after the date of the final canvas.  In other words, the soonest the runoff could be held would be Monday, December 2, and the latest would be Monday, December 30.

Historically, the runoff election is held on the first or second Saturday in December.  With a November 5 general election, the most likely date for the runoff is Saturday, December 7.  

I expect that we will begin seeing published news media polls in the near future, and we will then have more data to begin assessing the likelihood of a December mayoral runoff election.

Monday, September 2, 2013

Mother's Milk of Politics

On August 29, all statewide candidates were required to file campaign finance reports detailing their contributions accepted from June 26 - July 30.  This report is in addition the semiannual reports candidates were required to file on July 15, which included all contributions accepted during the first six months of 2013.

The August 29 report is an anomaly in Texas campaign finance.  Usually, in odd-numbered years, statewide candidates are only required to report their contributions accepted in six month increments.  The report covering the first six months of the year is due July 15, and the report covering the last six months of the year is due January 15 of the next year.  The difference this year is the special session.  While lawmakers are prohibited from accepting contributions during the regular session and continuing through the Governor's veto period, they are allowed to accept contributions during a special session.  The catch is that each contribution accepted during a special session must be reported to the Texas Ethics Commission by 30 days after the end of the special session.  This year, Governor Perry called three special sessions.  The second special session, which ran from July 1 - July 30, triggered a campaign finance report for each of these candidates that was due August 29.

Historically, candidates work hard at the end of a reporting period to receive as many contributions as they can to make their numbers look good.  In addition to pushing up the fundraising numbers (used by members of the public, including this author, as one indication of a candidate's relative strength or weakness), this also results in a deflated fundraising period in the months following the end of a reporting period.  This is especially true in the summer, when larger donors are frequently on vacation and therefore unreachable by candidates, resulting in fewer contributions during the period.

Below is a chart showing the fundraising totals for each of the announced statewide candidates, broken down into three different periods.  The first period is January 1 - June 16, when only those candidates who are not currently statewide officeholders or sitting legislators may raise money.  The second period is June 17 - June 30, which is the big fundraising push when all sitting officeholders are able to raise money (these figures were reported on the candidates' July campaign finance reports).  The third period is July 1 - July 30, which is covered by the special session report.


Candidate
Office Sought
Jan. 1 - June 16
June 17 - June 30
July 1 - July 30
New Loans
Total 2013
Greg Abbott
Governor
               - 
       4,791,017 
       1,005,462 
           - 
   5,796,479 
Wendy Davis
Governor (Expected)
               - 
         933,471 
         413,589 
           - 
   1,347,059 
Tom Pauken
Governor
         105,671 
          25,772 
          39,070 
     100,000 
     270,512 
David Dewhurst
Lt. Governor
               - 
       1,213,957 
          82,723 
           - 
   1,296,680 
Dan Patrick
Lt. Governor
               - 
          86,490 
          16,129 
     650,000 
     752,619 
Jerry Patterson
Lt. Governor
               - 
         418,792 
          17,864 
           - 
     436,655 
Todd Staples
Lt. Governor
               - 
       1,003,333 
          36,208 
           - 
   1,039,541 
Dan Branch
Attorney General
               - 
       1,762,990 
         203,892 
           - 
   1,966,882 
Ken Paxton
Attorney General
               - 
         278,621 
          44,250 
           - 
     322,871 
Barry Smitherman
Attorney General
               - 
         698,770 
          36,779 
           - 
     735,549 
Glenn Hegar
Comptroller
               - 
         221,462 
          39,500 
           - 
     260,962 
Harvey Hilderbran
Comptroller
               - 
         116,061 
               - 
           - 
     116,061 
Debra Medina
Comptroller
          24,400 
          30,627 
           2,670 
           - 
      57,697 
Raul Torres
Comptroller
           2,250 
             100 
              50 
           - 
       2,400 
George P. Bush
Land Comm.
       1,844,696 
         232,638 
          60,081 
           - 
   2,137,415 
David Watts
Land Comm.
               - 
             270 
           1,685 
           - 
       1,955 
J. Carnes
Agriculture Comm.
          25,500 
          41,243 
          11,100 
           - 
      77,843 
Brandon Creighton
Agriculture Comm.
               - 
         567,900 

           - 
     567,900 
Eric Opiela
Agriculture Comm.
               - 
           7,625 
          56,325 
      25,000 
      88,950 
Becky Berger
Railroad Comm.
             675 
               - 
             200 
           - 
         875 
Malachi Boyuls
Railroad Comm.
           1,255 
         196,775 
          33,055 
     132,500 
     363,585 
Stefani Carter
Railroad Comm.
               - 
          10,592 
           4,491 
         130 
      15,213 
Ray Keller
Railroad Comm.
               - 
               - 
             250 
           - 
         250 


After reviewing the numbers, there are a few takeaways:

Attorney General Greg Abbott is a fundraising powerhouse.  General Abbott, who announced he had approximately $21 million in the bank as of June 30, has been known for years as a prolific fundraiser. This was put on display with his June fundraising totals, where he raised nearly $4.8 million, smashing all fundraising records during the period in Texas. What is just as impressive, however, is that he has been able to keep up his fundraising during July, pulling in an additional $1 million--for a total of nearly $5.8 million raised in 44 days.  This number is even more impressive by comparison: General Abbott raised almost as much during July as the other 22 candidates on this list did combined.  In case anyone had not been paying attention at all, this shows that General Abbott will be a fully funded candidate for his race next year.

Senator Wendy Davis is a strong fundraiser as well. Senator Davis, who is expected by most to announce her candidacy for Governor in the coming weeks, rose to national attention with her June filibuster of abortion legislation on the floor of the Senate.  She raised almost $1 million in the first 14 days of fundraising, followed up by another $413,588.55 in July.  Should Senator Davis decide to run for Governor, it appears she has the ability to raise significant sums of money, making her competitive (at least financially) in such a race.  Despite her fundraising success, General Abbott is still out-raising her 4:1.  Nevertheless, her ability to raise money makes it easy to see why Democrats, both in Texas and across the nation, have been discussing her possible candidacy with optimism.

The Lieutenant Governor's race will be an expensive affair.  Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, a three-term incumbent, has the ability to self-fund his campaign. Governor Dewhurst raised more money than each of his competitors, both in the June fundraising period and in the month of July.  Though he has a significant financial advantage, both from his fundraising and his personal wealth, his challengers appear able to raise money on their own to be competitive.  Leading the pack is Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples, the only challenger to break the $1 million mark.  Unlike General Abbott and Senator Davis, the four Lt. Governor candidates saw their fundraising totals drop precipitously between the last 14 days of June and the first 30 days of July, which is to be expected for reasons already mentioned.

Representative Dan Branch continues his monetary advantage in the race for Attorney General. Representative Branch raised almost twice as much as his two opponents (Senator Ken Paxton and Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman) raised combined in June, and doubled their July take as well. Rep. Branch has long been a successful fundraiser, and he will be a fully funded candidate in 2014. Senator Paxton and Commissioner Smitherman both raised respectable amounts in June, though they saw a July drop-off in fundraising similar to those seen by other candidates during that period.  (Disclosure:  The author serves as campaign treasurer for Commissioner Smitherman.)

The money race for Comptroller has Sen. Hegar and Rep. Hilderbran far ahead of the other candidates, Debra Medina and former Rep. Raul Torres.  Many view Sen. Hegar as the favorite in this race because of his ability to raise money--if he wins, he's Comptroller, and if he loses, he's still a state senator. Rep. Hilderbran reported no contributions received in July.

George P. Bush will be fully funded.  Surprising no one, Mr. Bush, who is running for Land Comm., put up big numbers this year.  Look for him to continue collecting cash throughout the election cycle.  If he does not have a serious opponent and is therefore able to conserve his funds, Mr. Bush could enter the 2015 session as a sitting statewide officeholder with one of the largest war chests in the state.

Representative Brandon Creighton leads the pack in the fundraising race for Agriculture Commissioner, far eclipsing his opponents.

In the Railroad Commission race, Malachi Boyuls is the only candidate currently showing the ability to raise serious money.