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Sunday, October 13, 2013

Preview of November 2014 Legislative Races


Optimal Republican Voting Strength (ORVS) is a method of comparing legislative districts on an apples-to-apples basis for purposes of assessing the generic Republican voting strength of the district.  Although there is a strong correlation between ORVS and actual results, it is less of a predictor and more of a metric for ranking the Republican strength of the districts.  Mike Baselice of Baselice & Associates has computed the 2014 ORVS using the following formula:  [(2010 Perry %) + (2 x 2010 Abbott %) + (2012 Hecht %) + (2012 Romney % + 2012 Cruz %)] / 6 = ORVS.  

Democrats use the Democratic Performance Index (DPI).  I have not seen the 2014 DPI numbers, although they have been described to me.

There appear to be 15 competitive House districts in Texas for the general election, and 1 competitive Senate district.  They are:


HD
Incumbent
2014 ORVS
MQS Hit
54
Aycock - R
59.6%
Yes
45
Isaac - R
59.6%
No
112
Button - R 
58.7%
Yes
134
Davis - R
58.3%
Yes
114
Villalba - R
57.9%
Yes
102
Open (Carter - R)
56.7%
No
105
Harper-Brown - R
56.2%
Yes
113
Burkett - R
55.8%
Yes
43
Lozano - R
55.3%
No
107
Sheets - R
55.2%
Yes
23
Open (Eiland - D)
54.5%
No
117
Cortez - D
52.0%
No
144
Perez - D
50.0%
No
78
Moody - D
49.4%
No
34
Herrero - D
49.0%
No



SD
Incumbent
2014 ORVS
MQS Hit
10
Open (Davis - D)
56.4%
No


The Republican targets of opportunity are the open seats HD 23 (Eiland) in Galveston and SD 10 (Davis) in Fort Worth.

The Democrats will be focusing their fire on the open seat in HD 102 (Carter), and Reps. Harper-Brown, Burkett, Lozano and Sheets.

Michael Quinn Sullivan (MQS) and Empower Texas are also ably aiding the Democrats in their pick up efforts by mailing “F” report cards into the districts of Aycock, Button, Davis, Villalba, Harper-Brown (received a D-), Burkett and Sheets, softening them up for the general election.

At this point, I would say the betting line for the 2015 House opens  at between +1 R per the Republicans, and +4 D per the Democrats.  In my opinion, the Republicans are favored to pick up the Davis senate seat.  This would result in 54 to 59 House Democrats next session, and 11 Democratic senators.