Robert Miller's Blog

Texas House Races -- Harris County

2012-03-10T17:04:00.000-06:00

7 of the 24 Harris County state representatives face no major party opposition in either the primary or the general, and congratulations to the following who were reelected yesterday with the passage of the filing deadline:

Patricia Harless
Wayne Smith
Allen Fletcher
Armando Walle
Harold Dutton
Carol Alvarado
Jessica Farrar

There are 2 open seats:

Scott Hochberg is not seeking reelection, and 4 Democrats and 1 Republican are vying to represent this seat rated as 18.0D by TWI
Ken Legler is not seeking reelection, and 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans are vying to represent this seat rated as 1.7D by TWI

6 members are facing primary only races:

John Davis has 1 opponent
Alma Allen has 1 opponent
Bill Callegari has 1 opponent
Jim Murphy has 2 opponents
Dwayne Bohac has 1 opponent
Borris Miles has 1 opponent

3 House members have both a primary and a general race:

Dan Huberty
Garnet Coleman
Debbie Riddle

Finally, 6 members are facing a general election opponent:

Sarah Davis
Gary Elkins
Sylvester Turner
Senfronia Thompson
Ana Luna
Hubert Vo

More information may be found at http://tinyurl.com/Harris-Co

Texas House Races -- Bexar Co.

2012-03-10T16:01:00.000-06:00

5 of the 10 Bexar County state representatives face no major party opposition in either the primary or the general, and the following were reelected yesterday with the passage of the filing deadline:

Trey Martinez Fischer
Ruth Jones McClendon
Lyle Larson
Mike Villarreal
Jose Menendez

Status of the other 5 seats is as follows:

3 Democrats are vying for the nomination to face John Garza in a district with a TWI rating of 2.3R
Joe Farias and Roland Gutierrez each have a general election opponent
Speaker Straus has a primary opponent
2 Democrats and 1 Republican are vying to replace Joaquin Castro, who is running for Congress

More information may be found at http://tinyurl.com/Bexar-Co

Texas House Races -- Tarrant Co.

2012-03-10T14:52:00.000-06:00

Unlike Dallas County where 6 of the 14 state representatives face no major party opposition, all of the 11 House seats in Tarrant County are contested. There are 5 seats without an incumbent seeking reelection, as follows:

To be decided in the Republican primary:

District 91 where Kelly Hancock is running for SD 9
District 92 where Todd Smith is also running for SD 9
District 97 where Mark Shelton is running for SD 10

To be decided in the Democratic primary:

District 95 where Mark Veasey is running for CD 33 (there is a quixotic Republican for the general election)
District 101 is a new seat with a TWI rating 21.0D

There are 5 seats where the incumbent is facing a primary challenge:

District 90 where Lon Burnam has one challenger
District 93 where Barbara Nash has two primary challengers
District 94 where Diane Patrick has one challenger
District 96 where Bill Zedler has one challenger
District 98 where Vicki Truitt has both a primary and general election challenger

Finally, Charlie Geren has a quixotic Democratic general election opponent in a 31.1R district.

More information may be found in the spreadsheet at http://tinyurl.com/Tarrant-Co

Texas House Races -- Dallas County

2012-03-10T10:17:00.000-06:00

Dallas County lost 2 state representative districts in redistricting, dropping from 16 to 14 seats. The refiling deadline yesterday turned out to be a good day for incumbents with only Angie Chen Button facing a primary challenger. As best I can tell from the various party sources, the following drew neither a primary nor a general election major party opponent and will be reelected:

Eric Johnson
Rafael Anchia
Roberto Alonzo
Dan Branch
Helen Giddings
Yvonne Davis

The following incumbents did not seek reelection to the House:

Rodney Anderson (paired with Linda Harper-Brown)
Barbara Mallory Caraway (running for Congress)
Joe Driver (paired with Cindy Burkett)
Will Hartnett
Jim Jackson

The following Republican incumbents did not draw a primary opponent, but face a Democrat in the general election:

Stefani Carter
Linda Harper-Brown
Kenneth Sheets
Cindy Burkett

There are 3 open seats, 2 of which will be decided in the primary:

3 Democrats are vying for the Caraway seat
5 Republicans and 1 Democrat are vying for the Jackson seat
Former Rep. Bill Keffer and 2 other Republicans are running for the Hartnett, as is former Rep. Carol Kent and another Democrat

More details on the races may be found at http://tinyurl.com/DALLAS-CO

Jesse Ancira to be Speaker’s Chief of Staff

2012-03-09T09:35:00.001-06:00

Jesse Ancira, Jr. will be named as Speaker Straus’ Chief of Staff succeeding Denise Davis, who recently left to open her own law and lobby practice with Lisa Kaufman. Ancira previously served as General Counsel, Senior Tax Advisor, Economic Development Advisor and Ethics Advisor to Speaker Straus. He is a former Associate Deputy Comptroller, former Assistant State Auditor, and a former Special Agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation. He is a graduate of Taylor High School and holds an accounting degree from Southwest Texas State University and a law degree from The University of Texas.

Ancira also serves as an At Large Representative on the Taylor City Council, having been elected in May 2011.

SD 9 -- Republican Primary

2012-03-07T10:31:00.001-06:00

We now have 3 incumbent Republican State Representatives filed to replace the retiring Sen. Chris Harris in SD 9: Rodney Anderson; Kelly Hancock and Todd Smith. Below is a chart showing the number of their current House district voters in SD 9. Hancock and Smith start off with the advantage based on these numbers.

HD	Current Member	Total Number of Registered Voters	Voted in at least 1 of past 4 Rep. primaries	Voted in at least 2 of past 4 Rep. primaries
91	Hancock	88,935	15,773	6,861
92	Smith	65,825	11,638	4,903
93	Nash	39,285	4,229	1,521
94	Patrick	11,217	1,529	646
95	Veasey	5,803	811	343
98	Truitt	101,073	18,709	6,574
99	Geren	11,059	1,449	514
104	Alonzo	4,623	269	99
105	Harper-Brown	16,822	2,471	1,110
106	Anderson	62,764	7,680	3,212

Rep. J. M. Lozano Will Run as a Republican

2012-03-05T11:47:00.000-06:00

Rep. J. M. Lozano (D - Alice) has decided to switch to the Republican Party and will file for reelection as a Republican in HD 43 this week. George P. Bush was instrumental in his recruitment, and Governor Perry, Speaker Straus, and other GOP officials have contacted him and welcomed him to the party. A press conference is in the works for this week.

Competitive Texas House Races -- Houston SMSA

2012-03-03T13:52:00.000-06:00

Under the San Antonio court redistricting maps, we currently have 8 competitive House races in the Houston area. There are 2 newly created seats (Districts 3 -- Waller and Montgomery; and 85 -- Ft. Bend, Wharton and Jackson), 2 swing seats (Eiland and Legler), and 4 open seats (Taylor, Howard, Weber and Hochberg). The filing period does not close until 6 p.m. on Friday, so it is always possible that there may be additional competitive primary races. Below is my current analysis of these 8 races.

Incumbent	Dist.	Candidate		Party	TWI	COH 12/31/11	RDM Assessment
Open	3	Bob	Bagley	R	51.2R	$350
	3	Cecil	Bell	R	51.2R	$68,235	Heavy favorite. Strong community ties and personal wealth.

Craig Eiland	23	Craig	Eiland	D	2.3R	$97,836	Favorite. Elected to Texas House in 1995.
	23	Wayne	Faircloth	R	2.3R	$20,125
	23	Bill	Wallace	R	2.3R	$250	Ex-Chambers County Commissioner.

Larry Taylor	24	Greg	Bonnen	R	42.5R	$465,612	Favorite. Great sign presence in the district; able to self-fund; brother is Rep. Dennis Bonnen.
	24	Ryan	Sitton	R	42.5R	$7,569	Credible candidate, but definite underdog to Bonnen.
	24	Heidi	Thiess	R	42.5R	$1,279	TEA Party candidate.

Charlie Howard	26	Sonal	Bhuchar	R	32.8R	$96,111	Ft. Bend ISD Board President. Credible candidate.
	26	Jacquie	Chaumette	R	32.8R	$77,725	Appears to be current frontrunner.
	26	Diana	Miller	R	32.8R	$1,000
	26	Rick	Miller	R	32.8R	$1,445

Randy Weber	29	Eric	Johnson	R	29.6R	n/a
	29	Debra	Rosenthall-Ritter	R	29.6R	$10,945
	29	Ed	Thompson	R	29.6R	$120,018	Heavy favorite. Pearland Mayor Pro-Tem.

Open	85	Lee	Duggan	R	19.1R	$63,530	Favorite. Son of former Sugar Land Mayor.
	85	Phil	Stephenson	R	19.1R	$19,978	TEA Party candidate.
	85	Dora	Olivo	D	19.1R	$655	Former State Rep.
Scott Hochberg	137	Joe	Madden	D	18.0D	$10,242	Rep. Garnet Coleman's Chief of Staff.
	137	Jamaal	Smith	D	18.0D	$2,500	Former ED, Harris County Democratic Party.
	137	Sarah	Winkler	D	18.0D	$1,378	Alief ISD Board member.
	137	Gene	Wu	D	18.0D	$70,869	Is off to the fastest fundraising start. Has upcoming March 8 fundraiser hosted by Gordon Bethune.
	137	MJ	Khan	R	18.0D	n/a	Former Houston City Council Member.

Ken Legler	144	Ken	Legler (Inc.)	R	1.7R	$34,040	Elected to Texas House in 2009.
	144	Mary Ann	Perez	D	1.7R	$14,547	HCC Board President.
	144	Kevin	Risner	D	1.7R	$0	Son of current JP.
	144	Orlando	Ybarra	D	1.7R	$3,663	Member, Pasadena City Council.

Ladies and Gentlemen: Start Your Engines!

2012-02-29T08:41:00.000-06:00

To have a political race, you need a finish line and a race course. We are now close to having both for Texas congressional and legislative seats. Although a final court order has not been issued (possibly today), it looks like:

The finish line for the Texas primary will be May 29 with a July 31 runoff.
Filing for all offices will reopen this week on Friday, March 2, and close on Tuesday, March 6.
Early voting will begin May 14.

In other words, this will be a drag race instead of the Daytona 500.

A word about the race course. If you look at it through the prism of the 2008 election results it appears one way; if you view it through the 2010 elections it appears another. For example, Democrats consider Congressional District 23 held by Congressman Quico Canseco to be a viable pick-up opportunity. In 2008, Sen. McCain received 49.3% of the vote in CD 23 to 49.9% for President Obama. However, in 2010 the average percentage of the vote for Republican statewide candidates in CD 23 was 55.39%. When someone quotes you numbers for a district, make sure you know whether they are referring to 2008 or 2010 election results. It makes a big difference.

Now, for the pre-race analysis.

Congressional

The Texas congressional delegation is currently 23 Republicans and 9 Democrats. The interim map shores up Republican Congressmen Canseco and Farenthold, and in essence splits the 4 new congressional seats as 2 Republican and 2 Democratic. The Republicans will be favored to have 25 seats after the 2012 elections, and the Democrats 11.

Senate

The only seat in partisan contention is SD 10 held by Sen. Wendy Davis. Essentially, she has the same seat to run in that she won in 2008. However, it is still a marginally Republican seat. In 2008, Sen. McCain carried the seat 52.1% to 47.1% over President Obama.

House

In January 2011, there were 101 Republicans in the Texas House and 49 Democrats. Under the interim map, my initial reaction is that there will likely be 92 or 93 Republicans elected in 2012. The Democrats will pick up 8 or 9 seats, but the House will still be overwhelmingly Republican.

Lastly, expect some filing surprises in the next 6 days. I am hearing that a few incumbents who expected an easy race may find themselves having to burn rubber in the next 89 days!

We are Inching Closer to Maps

2012-02-27T18:17:00.000-06:00

The San Antonio court has requested that the Democratic Party and the Republican Party submit an advisory to the court by 2 p.m. Wednesday detailing proposed procedural deadlines for a May 29 election, and what Texas Election Code provisions will need to be waived to accomplish this primary date and delegate selection process. With the March 3 deadline looming, it looks like we may be seeing maps Thursday or Friday.

Texas Redistricting: Where Are We?

2012-02-23T17:36:00.000-06:00

All of the hearings and briefings have concluded, and we are simply waiting on the courts to rule. A three judge D.C. court is considering whether the legislature’s maps comply with Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA). A three judge San Antonio court is determining whether the legislature’s maps comply with Section 2 of the VRA and are otherwise constitutional.

D.C. Court

The D.C. court has previously indicated that it would not issue a ruling before March at the earliest. It is clear that the D.C. court will find that the maps do not comply with Section 5. It is unknown how many VRA violations the court will find and whether the court will specify how the affected districts are to be redrawn. The plaintiffs, comprised of minority and Democratic groups, are anxious for the D.C. court to rule before the San Antonio court issues maps, because they believe the D.C. court will be more favorable to their position than the San Antonio court.

San Antonio Court

The San Antonio court has strongly encouraged and prodded the parties to settle their differences so that the court could issue agreed maps. The parties did agree on the State Senate map, but it is clear they are unable to reach a settlement regarding the Texas House or Congressional seats.

Accordingly, the San Antonio court is drawing interim maps. The court previously indicated that the primary election would be May 29 at the earliest. Testimony from election officials indicated they need maps by March 3 in order to have a May 29 election. The Supreme Court has instructed the court to give deference to the legislature’s district lines except where 1) legal challenges under the Constitution or VRA Section 2 are shown to have a “likelihood of success”; or 2) there is a “not insubstantial” chance that aspects of the legislature’s map will fail under VRA Section 5 review.

Two Possible Scenarios

(1) The San Antonio court does not wait on the D.C. court to rule, but rather issues interim maps by March 3 (Saturday week) and schedules the primary election for May 29 with the runoff July 31. The court has indicated that it will also reopen candidate filing for some period of time. The problem with this scenario is that we will subsequently get a ruling from the D.C. court regarding Section 5 pre-clearance, and that ruling may not comport with how the San Antonio court drew the lines.

(2) The San Antonio court waits on the D.C. court to rule, and then incorporates that ruling when it issues an interim map. However, given the D.C. court has previously indicated it would not issuing a ruling until March at the earliest, it means we would not have a May 29 primary. The next likely date would June 26, with the runoff late August or early September.

Scenario (1) appears to me to be the most likely based on what I am seeing and hearing. I am hopeful that we will see interim maps either this week or next, resulting in a May 29 election. If that doesn’t happen, no telling when the Texas primary will be.

Proposed Senate Map

2012-02-06T15:15:00.001-06:00

Only 5 North Texas districts change under the proposed settlement map from General Abbott. Below are the districts and their voting percentages from the 2008 Presidential election:

Dist.	Incumbent	McCain	Obama
9	(Harris)	54.7	44.4
10	Davis	52.5	46.7
12	Nelson	63.9	35.3
22	Birdwell	66.2	33
30	Estes	71	27.8

Under the 2008 lines, Sen. Davis' district voted 52.1% for McCain and 47.1% for Obama, so it is slightly improved for the Republicans and remains a marginally Republican district. The other 26 Senate districts remain unchanged.

Harris Co. State Rep. Districts under Proposed Settlement

2012-02-06T14:48:00.003-06:00

Attorney General Abbott has released proposed interim maps that are agreed to by some, but not all, of the parties to the redistricting litigation. The San Antonio court still must rule on the maps. If the court adopts the proposed maps, Harris County would have 24 State Representative seats: 12 Democratic and 12 Republican. Below are the vote percentages for each district from the 2008 Presidential election:

Dist.	Incumbent	McCain	Obama
126	Harless	61.9	34.4
127	Huberty	67.8	31.4
128	W. Smith	69.9	29.4
129	J. Davis	62.3	36.8
130	Fletcher	74	25.3
131	Allen	17.9	81.7
132	Callegari	59.7	39.6
133	Murphy	65	34.2
134	Davis	54.4	44.6
135	Elkins	60.6	38.7
136	Vo	34.9	64.5
137	Open	43.6	55.5
138	Bohac	59.3	39.8
139	Turner	23.4	75.6
140	Walle	33.2	66.2
141	Thompson	14.4	85.3
142	Dutton	21.3	78.3
143	Luna	35.2	64.1
144	Legler	51	48
145	Alvarado	42	57.1
146	Miles	21.3	78.2
147	Coleman	18.9	80.3
148	Farrar	41.4	57.4
150	Riddle	67.6	31.7

Beverly Woolley's seat becomes Hubert Vo's 136; Sarah Davis receives a moderately Republican district; and Ken Legler's seat remains marginally Republican. The HD 136 Republican Primary race (DeAyala, Holm, Schofield, Witt) goes away, and the HD 137 Democratic Primary (Madden, Smith, Winkler, Wu) is off and running!

Texas Senate Cash on Hand

2012-01-25T17:11:00.000-06:00

I looked at the December 31 cash on hand numbers for Senate incumbents and challengers. They are:

Senator    Cash on Hand Candidate   COH       Candidate   COH
Birdwell     $230,941
Carona      $130,032
Davis         $681,362       Hancock $603,756    Shelton      $256,105
Deuell        $225,489
Duncan      $313,085
Ellis        $1,656,688
Eltife      $1,443,353
Estes        $242,938
Fraser    $1,408,726
Gallegos   $111,080
Harris                               Anderson $72,864    Goodman          $504
Hegar     $1,177,917
Hinojosa    $386,058
Huffman     $704,433
Jackson                            Taylor $169,778         Norman      $11,534
Lucio             $5,120
Nelson       $950,603
Nichols      $378,998
Ogden                              Schwertner $249,734  Bius              $8,717
Patrick    $1,004,940
Rodriguez  $103,255
Seliger     $1,309,418
Shapiro                            Paxton $853,876         O'Grady      $36,842
Uresti           $76,487
VandePutte $182,432
Watson    $1,551,539
Wentworth $183,440       Jones $200,353           Campbell       $4,511
West        $1,242,274
Whitmire $5,113,361
Williams      $675,965
Zaffirini    $1,203,493

Observations:

When the San Antonio court issues an interim map, there will be a 60 to 75 day sprint to the primary election. The cash on hand numbers are probably a pretty good indication of what the races will look like.
Both Sen. Davis and Rep. Hancock put up strong numbers in SD 10.
Rep. Anderson appears well positioned in SD 9 assuming Hancock runs in SD 10.
Rep. Taylor is the clear favorite in SD 11, but has not raised sufficient funds so far to inoculate himself from a Steve Mostyn funding blitz.
Rep. Schwertner remains the clear favorite in SD 5.
Sen. Patrick breaks a $1 million, demonstrating fundraising ability to go with his statewide grassroots appeal should he run for Lieutenant Governor in 2014.
Rep. Paxton is the overwhelming favorite in SD 8.
Sen. Wentworth and Commissioner Jones are financially competitive with each other in SD 25.
Finally -- it is good to be the Dean! Sen. Whitmire reports over $5 million.

Supreme Court Rules on Texas Redistricting

2012-01-20T16:39:00.001-06:00

The U. S. Supreme Court overturned the San Antonio court redistricting map this morning, opined that the court must give much greater deference to the legislative map, and remanded the case for further proceedings in the San Antonio court. The ruling was per curiam, meaning that it was unsigned. There were no dissents to the ruling, and there was a concurring opinion from Justice Thomas stating that Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) was unconstitutional.

The San Antonio court has previously ordered a filing deadline of February 1 and a primary election date of April 3. I believe one of two scenarios will now occur. Scenario 1: The San Antonio court will produce new interim maps next week consistent with the Supreme Court ruling, allowing the April 3 primary election to occur. To produce maps this quickly, the court will rely heavily on the legislative plan and only make changes where it is certain to the court that there is a constitutional or VRA violation. Scenario 2: The San Antonio court will not produce a map next week but rather will wait on the D.C. court to issue a ruling in the VRA Section 5 proceeding. This ruling will not occur until February at the earliest -- necessitating the Texas elections to be postponed further, probably until at least May.

The Supreme Court continues to act with exceptional speed in the Texas proceeding. By issuing the opinion today (Monday would have been the normal day to release the ruling), it clearly is giving the San Antonio court the opportunity to rule in time for an April 3 election date. If the court fails to do so, responsibility for further postponing the election will be borne by the San Antonio court and not the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court also has made it clear that the San Antonio court must follow the legislative plan unless it finds a likelihood of a Section 2 violation or a “reasonable probability” of a Section 5 violation. The plaintiffs suing to set aside the legislative plan have the burden of proof, which is significant.

It is obvious the Supreme Court is putting pressure on the San Antonio court to issue a plan that is very close to the legislative plan, only changing as necessary any districts that likely violate the VRA. Whether the San Antonio court will move quickly at this point is anyone’s guess. The ball is firmly in their court.

In closing, I will note that I received pushback when I wrote the following after attending the Supreme Court January 9 hearing:

"My read of the oral argument is that the Supreme Court is likely to issue an opinion before the end of January. I believe that ruling will overturn the San Antonio court plan, and instruct that greater deference be given to the legislative plan."

I was right.

Initial Impressions on SCOTUS Redistricting Hearing

2012-01-09T15:25:00.000-06:00

I attended oral arguments this afternoon at the Supreme Court regarding the Texas redistricting maps. My initial observations are as follows:

1. There are clearly five votes to do something: This question is what? In my observations, Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Alito, Kennedy, Scalia, Thomas are likely to overturn the San Antonio court map. However, it is not clear how or when.

2. I believe that Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act (“VRA”) is definitely in play before the court. Chief Justice Roberts stated that the constitutionality of the VRA as a whole is not before the court, but clearly Section 5 is.

3. What appeared to trouble a majority of the court is that no deference is being given to the legislative maps, even though there has been no finding of violation by the legislative maps. There was much discussion regarding redistricting being about policy choices, and a majority of the court seemed uncomfortable with judges making policy choices as opposed to the legislature.

4. Chief Justice Roberts (I believe it was he) indicated that the court needed to have a plan in effect by February 1. Justice Alito questioned why Texas couldn’t simply push its elections back in order to give the courts more time to complete their proceedings. In response to a question from Justice Sotomayor, the answer was given that some states have legislative primaries as late as September.

5. My read of the oral argument is that the Supreme Court is likely to issue an opinion before the end of January. I believe that ruling will overturn the San Antonio court plan, and instruct that greater deference be given to the legislative plan.

6. However, it also appears likely to me that the DC court will not preclear the legislative plan. At one point when the discussion was about the DC court proceedings and when they were likely to conclude (Mr. Garza stated within 30 days), the Chief Justice then asked “And when do you expect that appeal to be back before us?”

After reading other blogs and articles about the hearing, I reserve the right to revise and extend my remarks.

African-American and Republican Coalition

2011-12-16T12:20:00.001-06:00

There was a fascinating fundraiser last evening for Houston Council Member-elect Andrew C. Burks, Jr. at the home of Republican financier Fred Zeidman. Burks, an African-American pastor and businessman, was recently elected to an At-Large seat on City Council. Some have speculated that Burks would be a one-term Council Member because he had determinedly run for office at least twelve previous times without success. That is not what I saw last night.

In attendance were Democratic elected stalwarts Judge Zinetta Burney, Constable May Walker and State Rep. Ron Reynolds; and Republicans Harris County District Clerk Chris Daniel and former Judge Levi Benton (Burk’s treasurer). Mayor Annise Parker was the Special Guest. Burks announced that he had hired Sandra Strachan from the Greater Houston Partnership as his Chief of Staff, and former Council Member Mark Goldberg as an Executive Advisor -- two strong hires.

I was particularly fascinated by the mixture of Democratic power players (primarily African-American) and Republican power players. City of Houston elections are nonpartisan, but they generally tend to break along partisan lines. Mr. Burks’ winning coalition was comprised of African-Americans, who vote overwhelmingly Democratic in partisan races, and westside conservative/Republicans. Council Member Brad Bradford was handily reelected with a similar coalition, and, incidentally, was the only incumbent Council Member to endorse Burks.

For years, Republicans have tried in City of Houston Mayor races to assemble a coalition with Hispanics, without success. It will now be interesting to watch if an electoral coalition of African-Americans and Republicans becomes a viable paradigm for future Mayor races.

SCOTUS Stays Interim Texas Maps

2011-12-12T04:30:00.000-06:00

Update

The U. S. Supreme Court issued an order Friday evening granting the State of Texas’ application for a stay of the interim maps drawn by the three judge panel in San Antonio (“San Antonio court”). The Supreme Court set an expedited briefing schedule and docketed the case for oral argument on January 9.

The San Antonio court issued an order Sunday afternoon scheduling a status conference for Tuesday at 10 a.m. to address the “filing deadline and all other administrative deadlines and other necessary considerations as they relate to the conducting of the 2012 Primary Election.”

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott intends to ask the San Antonio court to stay all filing and administrative deadlines relating to the primary election for Texas’ congressional delegation and state legislature until after the court has approved the maps.

What Does This Mean?

There are now no legally enforceable maps for congressional, state house and state senate districts in Texas. The maps passed by the 83rd Texas Legislature have not been precleared under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act (“VRA”), and thus may not be used. The interim maps recently drawn by the San Antonio court have now been stayed.

It is therefore highly unlikely that Texas will be able to hold primaries on March 6 to select nominees for its 36 congressional seats, its 150 house seats and its 31 senate seats. I anticipate that the San Antonio court will suspend the November 15 filing deadline and the March 6 primary election for these offices until after the Supreme Court rules.

Bifurcated Primary?

Unaffected so far are the March 6 Texas primary elections for President, U. S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Texas Supreme Court, Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, State Board of Education, and county offices. The State of Texas has discussed continuing with the statewide and county primary elections on March 6, and holding the congressional, house and senate primary elections on May 22, which is the runoff election date for the statewide and county offices. Runoffs for congressional, house and senate seats would then be late July or early August.

The question before the San Antonio court this week will be does Texas have a bifurcated primary in 2012 by selecting nominees for the statewide and county offices on March 6, and selecting nominees for congressional, state house and state senate districts possibly on May 22 after the Supreme Court rules? Alternatively, the entire March 6 primary could be delayed until after the Supreme Court rules.

What’s At Stake Nationally

The Supreme Court’s action and Texas’ redistricting is drawing considerable national attention, with some saying that control of the U. S. House of Representatives could hinge on the outcome. The Democrats need to pick up 25 congressional seats in the 2012 election to have a majority in the U. S. House. The Texas congressional delegation is currently 23 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Texas received 4 additional seats under reapportionment.

The Legislature’s map preserved the 23 R seats, split the new seats 3R and 1D, resulting in a projected 2013 delegation of 26R and 10 D -- a pickup of 2 seats for the Republicans. The San Antonio court’s map imperiled the seat of Congressman Canseco, split the new seats 3D and 1R, resulting in a possible 2013 delegation of 23R and 13D -- a pickup of 4 seats for the Democrats.

This 6 seat swing (+2R to +4D) between the Legislature’s map and the San Antonio court’s map clearly could swing the balance of power in the U. S. House.

Reading the Tea Leaves

A majority of the Supreme Court was required to issue the stay of the San Antonio court’s interim maps. The Supreme Court clearly recognizes the chaos this will cause with Texas’ scheduled March 6 primary, almost certainly resulting in a delay of some or all of the primary. I believe it highly unlikely that the Supreme Court will simply affirm the interim maps after its January 9 oral arguments. At this point, it appears that a majority of the Supreme Court intends to invalidate some or all of the San Antonio court’s interim maps.

The Supreme Court may also examine whether Section 5 of the VRA remains constitutional. The State of Texas has hinted at possibly bringing a constitutional challenge to Section 5 on the grounds that it usurps Texas’ sovereignty over its election system. Many observers believe that a majority of the Supreme Court has been waiting for a case to declare Section 5 of the VRA unconstitutional, and this may be it.

Harris County Update

2011-12-07T05:36:00.001-06:00

HOUSE

All incumbent state representatives have filed for reelection as of 5 p.m. yesterday except:

129 John Davis (R)

137 Scott Hochberg (D) who has announced his retirement

144 Ken Legler (R)

147 Garnet Coleman (D)

Rep. Ken Legler is undecided whether he will file for reelection in his court drawn district, which is not winnable for a Republican. Rep. John Davis and Rep. Garnet Coleman are expected to seek reelection.

Democratic Primaries

137 No one has filed so far, although Brandon Dudley, Sen. Ellis’ Chief of Staff; Joe Madden, Rep. Coleman’s Chief of Staff; and Jamaal Smith, former Executive Director of Harris County Democratic Party; have all expressed interest in the race.

144 There are now two candidates for the Democratic nomination: Orlando Ybarra, Pasadena City Councilman and Pearland police officer; and Kevin Risner, son of Judge George Risner. HCC Trustee Mary Ann Perez is also looking at the race.

SENATE

The following incumbent state senators have filed for reelection as of 5 p.m. yesterday:

6 Mario Gallegos

13 Rodney Ellis

15 John Whitmire

17 Joan Huffman

18 Glenn Hegar

The following incumbents have not filed yet:

4 Tommy Williams

7 Dan Patrick

11 Mike Jackson, who is vacating his seat to run for Congress

Sen. Williams and Sen. Patrick each intend to file for reelection.

SD 6 Democratic Primary? A SD 6 push poll has been conducted in the last few days testing various opponents against Sen. Gallegos. Team Gallegos believes that Bill King is the instigator of the poll, acting on behalf of HISD interests and perhaps anti-public employee pension interests. Former Commissioner Sylvia Garcia continues to indicate that she will not run against Sen. Gallegos.

SD 11 Republican Primary Rep. Larry Taylor and Daniel McCool, Harris County Deputy Sheriff, have each filed.

Status of Harris County State House Filings

2011-12-05T09:16:00.001-06:00

Unless stayed by the U. S. Supreme Court, candidate filing for Texas House seats is under way and continues through December 15 under the San Antonio court’s interim map. Harris County now has 24 State Representatives, and the status of these seats as of 5 p.m. Friday is:

Democratic Incumbents Filed for Reelection

131 Alma Allen

140 Armando Walle

141 Senfronia Thompson

143 Ana Hernandez-Luna

145 Carol Alvarado

146 Boris Miles

148 Jessica Farrar

149 Hubert Vo

Republican Incumbents Filed for Reelection

126 Patricia Harless

127 Dan Huberty

128 Wayne Smith

130 Allen Fletcher

132 Bill Callegari

133 Jim Murphy

134 Sarah Davis

135 Gary Elkins

138 Dwayne Bohac

150 Debbie Riddle

The following incumbents had not filed as of 5 p.m. Friday:

129 John Davis

137 Scott Hochberg announced his retirement

139 Sylvester Turner

142 Harold Dutton

144 Ken Legler

147 Garnet Coleman

Democratic Primaries

137 It appears that Brandon Dudley, Sen. Ellis’ Chief of Staff, will square off with Joe Madden, Rep. Coleman’s Chief of Staff.

Republican Primaries

133 Grant Johnston is challenging Jim Murphy

150 James Wilson is challenging Debbie Riddle

General Election Match-Ups

134 Ann Johnson has filed to run against Sarah Davis

144 No Democratic candidate has filed so far for this seat, which now appears very difficult for Rep. Legler to win.

2008 and 2010 Election Results by Proposed Texas House Districts

2011-11-18T09:19:00.001-06:00

http://tinyurl.com/PLANH298

Eppstein: Court Ordered SD 10 More Republican Than Current SD 10

2011-11-18T08:54:00.001-06:00

11.18.11

Re: Correction Requested

Robert:

Are you drinking Democrat Matt Angle's Kool-Aid?

What is your statistical basis to say: "Sen. Wendy Davis will become a favorite for reelection in SD 10"?

Davis was actually trying to pick up ALL of EAST Tarrant County to make SD10 more Democratic---- the federal CT map did not do this!

Additionally, the ACTUAL past voting history of SD 10 contradicts your statement:

* In 2002-2004-2006-2008-2010 No Democrat has EVER reached 50% in current SD10

* In 2008, Davis won on plurality with less than 50%

* The average GOP % in current SD10 in 2010 was 57%

* The average GOP % in current SD 10 in 2008 was 51%

* MCain pulled 52% in current SD10 in 2008

* Perry pulled 53% and Abbott pulled 60% in current SD10 in 2010

* The Federal Court map SD10 may actually be more Republican than the current SD10 map (I was told this and will try to confirm this morning).

Based on the above, I respectfully ask that you make a CORRECTION to your statement on Davis being a "favorite" in SD10.

Your consideration is appreciated.

Bryan Eppstein

Confirmed this morning:

The Federal Court Ordered State Senate District 10 is MORE Republican than the current SD10.... both McCain's 2008 % (52.2%) and Perry/Abbott's 2010 %s (52.7% and 60.1% respectively) are slightly higher in the Federal Court Ordered State Senate District 10 than the current SD 10.

San Antonio Court Proposes Speaker Reelection Map

2011-11-18T06:39:00.001-06:00

The three judge panel proposed interim redistricting maps for the Texas House and Senate late yesterday and gave the parties until Noon today to file comments and/or objections. At first blush, it appears that the Democrats will pick up about ten seats in the Texas House under the court map, and that Sen. Wendy Davis will become a favorite for reelection in SD 10. The partisan balance of the 83rd Legislature likely would be +/- 90 Republicans - 60 Democrats in the Texas House, and 19 Republicans - 12 Democrats in the Texas Senate.

Twelve House incumbents are paired, although with announced retirements, plans to run for another office, or residence relocation, the actual incumbent pairings appear to be two: Hunter (R) and Morrison (R) in HD 32; and Scott and Torres in HD 33. Three other Republican incumbents look to be in trouble because their district becomes significantly more Hispanic: Aaron Pena in HD 40; Dee Margo in HD 78; and Ken Legler in HD 144. There are thirteen open seats.

Assuming that the proposed maps are in place for the 2012 elections, immediate winners appear to be:

Speaker Straus -- He is much more insulated against an attack from the right with a 90 - 60 House than in a 101 - 49 House.
A Senate presiding officer to replace Lt. Gov. Dewhurst selected by both Democrats and Republicans, instead of only the Senate Republican Caucus.
Gaming -- The more Democrats in the legislature, the better the chances for gaming in 2013.
Texas Trial Lawyers Association -- They will be in a stronger position to combat Texans for Lawsuit Reform.
Texans for Secure Retirement -- Efforts to eliminate defined benefit plans for public employees in Texas will face a much more uphill battle.

The court will issue a congressional map shortly, and it seems to be the next shoe to drop. The Republican legislature divided the four new congressional seats 3R - 1D, while preserving seats for Congressmen Canseco and Farenthold. It would not surprise me for the court map to divide the new seats 3D - 1R, and for the court to imperil the reelection chances of Canseco and Farenthold.

Filing for office begins November 28 and ends December 15. Residency for Texas House and Senate seats will now be required to be established by December 15 (instead of November 6). Especially for the Texas House, fire up those moving vans!

Rep. Jerry Madden to Retire

2011-11-14T14:57:00.001-06:00

Rep. Jerry Madden will not seek reelection to HD 67. Already running in that seat are Jon Cole and Jeff Leach. This brings the number of House retirements to 9, with an additional 12 House members running for other offices.

City of Houston Election Wrap-Up

2011-11-09T07:05:00.000-06:00

As I predicted in my blog posting on September 6, it was generally a successful night for incumbents and for frontrunners in the open seats. Eleven out of thirteen incumbents were reelected outright: Mayor Parker; Controller Green; and Council Members Adams, Sullivan, Hoang, Pennington, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Costello, Noriega, and Bradford. Two incumbents are in a runoff: District A Council Member Brenda Stardig and At Large 5 Council Member Jolanda Jones.

In the five open seats, again as predicted, Alvin Byrd is in a runoff for District B with Pearland resident Jerry Davis; Ellen Cohen won District C outright; Kristi Thibaut is in a runoff for At Large 2 with perennial candidate Andrew Burks; Mike Laster won District J; and Larry Green won District K.

There will be four Council runoffs, with the election most likely called for December 10. My current analysis:

District A -- Incumbent Brenda Stardig trailed Helena Brown 41.1% to 47.2%. This race could go either way. Stardig is taking a lot of heat for voting for Renew Houston, which failed in District A in the 2009 vote. As the incumbent, Stardig should be able to raise the money to be competitive. Additionally, to the extent that Schoellkopf’s voters (11.7% of the vote) return to the polls, you would expect them to break for Stardig. Rating: Tossup.

District B -- Alvin Byrd led an eight candidate field 25.1% to 24.4% over Jerry Davis. Davis will be better funded in the runoff, but Byrd has stronger grassroots. Rating: Leans Byrd.

At Large 2 -- Andrew Burks led Kristi Thibaut 17% to 15.9% in a ten candidate field. Thibaut will pick up all of the establishment endorsements; Burks will continue to have strong support in the African-American community and will attempt to appeal to Westside Republican voters. Rating: Leans Thibaut.

At Large 5 -- Incumbent Jolanda Jones led Jack Christi into the runoff 38.3% to 33.4%. This will be the third consecutive runoff for Jones, and the second straight against Christi. In 2009, Jones defeated Christi 50.24% to 49.76%. Jones will turn this into a Democrat/Republican race, and in a 60% Democratic city that should give her the edge. Rating: Leans Jones.

Elizabeth Ames Jones to Challenge Wentworth

2011-11-07T05:43:00.000-06:00

Railroad Commission Chairman Elizabeth Ames Jones has decided to run for Texas Senate District 25, which is currently held by Sen. Jeff Wentworth. Jones began making calls to San Antonio supporters late last week gauging support for the race, and on Friday called Sen. Wentworth to advise him that she was running.

Jones previously was seeking election to the U. S. Senate, and as of September 30, 2011, reported $304,067 in cash on hand. She will be able to transfer all of those funds to her state race.

Jones represented San Antonio in the Texas House from 2001 until Gov. Perry appointed her to the Railroad Commission in 2005. Speaker Joe Straus subsequently won the special election in February 2005 succeeding Jones in HD 121. Jones’ San Antonio ties are wide and deep, and she will be a formidable competitor to Sen. Wentworth. Dr. Donna Campbell has recently moved into SD 25 and is also in the race.

Jones is the latest candidate to exit the U. S. Senate race, following in the footsteps of Michael Williams and Roger Williams, who are now running for Congress. A Mike Baselice poll conducted and released by the David Dewhurst campaign last week tells us why. The survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters shows David Dewhurst at 50%; Tom Leppert at 9%; and Ted Cruz at 6%.

As of September 30, 2011, Mayor Leppert has raised $2.5 million and loaned his campaign $2.6 million, and had $4.17 million cash on hand. In other words, he has not had to dip into the money that he loaned the campaign, and is still spending the money he raised. Leppert went up with paid advertising on television two weeks ago. I suspect that he is trying to move his numbers to see if it is worthwhile for him to stay in the race and begin spending the $5 to $7 million in personal funds required to compete with Dewhurst.

If Leppert ultimately exits the race before the filing deadline, Cruz will be one on one with Dewhurst in a high turnout primary election. Game, set and match.

2014

2011-11-04T05:32:00.000-05:00

Most Texas political eyes are currently focused on the interim congressional and legislative maps soon to be issued by the San Antonio court, the Republican presidential contest and the U. S. Senate race. However, there is already a lot going on with the 2014 Texas statewide races.

If Governor Perry is not elected President, it is impossible to predict whether he would run for a fourth term in 2014. Assuming that he does not, Attorney General Greg Abbott has positioned himself as the favorite for the Republican nomination.

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett is also quietly contemplating a possible run for Governor in 2014. Texas Republican Party Chairman Steve Munisteri recently named Emmett Chairman of Victory 2012, the party's statewide fundraising effort for the 2012 elections. Judge Emmett previously ran statewide in Texas in 1986 and 1988 for the Railroad Commission. Harris County, the largest county in the state, is a significant base to run from. However, the county’s share of the statewide Republican primary vote has been steadily declining from 13.3% of the votes cast in the Republican Primary for Governor in 2002; to 11.7% in 2006; to 10.6% in 2010.

For the Republican nomination for Lt. Governor, Comptroller Susan Combs, Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples have all announced. State Senator Dan Patrick has decided to run for Lt. Governor in 2014, with an official announcement anticipated late this year or early next. Finally, Rep. Dan Branch has indicated that he too intends to throw his hat into the ring for Lt. Governor.

I expect Cong. Michael McCaul to seek the Republican nomination for Attorney General in 2014. Ted Cruz, if he is not successful in his U. S. Senate race, could revive his 2009 campaign for Attorney General and square off with McCaul.

So far it is very quiet on the Democratic side with no one to date moving around on these 2014 races.

Smitherman Breaks $1 Million in Railroad Commission Race

2011-10-27T07:55:00.000-05:00

Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman, who was appointed by Governor Perry on July 8, began fundraising in August for the March Primary. With a strong Houston reception last night, Smitherman has now broken the $1 million mark in contributions received. Smitherman’s goal is to raise $1.5 million by December 31, and he appears likely to exceed that amount.

Commissioner Smitherman will be on the ballot for the two-year unexpired term as Railroad Commissioner next year, and he is currently unopposed.

Also on the ballot next year will be a six-year term as Railroad Commissioner. This position is currently held by Elizabeth Ames Jones, who is running for the United States Senate and not seeking reelection to the Railroad Commission. State Rep. Warren Chisum and Christi Craddick, attorney and daughter of former Speaker Tom Craddick, are the leading candidates for this seat.

Vandergriff Not Running

2011-10-25T15:49:00.000-05:00

Victor Vandergriff has decided not to run for Texas SD 9. If he had announced, he would have had to immediately resign as Chairman of the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles. He could not get comfortable with leaving the agency at this time with the various issues in play before it.

Rep. Rodney Anderson remains the only announced candidate in the race, although former Rep. Toby Goodman has indicated that he may run. I expect business donors to start rallying behind Anderson to try to head off another divisive and expensive primary such as we are seeing in SD 10. Anderson, who has been running hard for several months, appears to be gaining traction, and this development will certainly boost his campaign.

Pre-Filing Update on Texas Senate Races

2011-10-19T13:14:00.001-05:00

Four state senators have announced their retirement, a fifth senate district is anticipated to flip from Democrat to Republican if the redistricting map is upheld, and one incumbent is likely facing a stiff primary challenge. Twenty-five senators appear to be breezing to reelection.

On average over the last ten years, there have been three new senators each legislative session. In 2003 (78th Regular Session), there were four new senators; 2005 -- two; 2007 -- five; 2009 -- two; 2011 -- two. In 2013, it appear that there will be at least five new senators. My assessment of the races:

Retirements

SD 5 (Ogden) -- Rep. Charles Schwertner will win the race. At this point, no one else has filed, although Ben Bius continues to talk about it.

SD 8 (Shapiro) -- Rep. Ken Paxton is the heavy favorite to defeat Scott O’Grady, a motivational speaker and retired Air Force pilot who was shot down in Bosnia.

SD 9 (Harris) -- Victor Vandergriff will face off against Rep. Rodney Anderson. Vandergriff is Chair of the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, and the immediate past Chair of the North Texas Tollway Authority. He has long and deep roots in Tarrant County, which is where the majority of voters in SD 9 live. Rep. Rodney Anderson is a solid member, a strong campaigner and a very likeable person. He will give Mr. Vandergriff a run, but it starts out as Vandergriff’s race to lose.

SD 11 (Jackson) -- Rep. Larry Taylor is the heavy favorite to defeat Dave Norman, a Seabrook insurance agent, and Daniel McCool, a Harris County Deputy Sheriff. Rep. Taylor chairs the House Republican Caucus, and has virtually unanimous support from the Republican elected officials in the district. There are two outstanding questions on this race. First, do the lines of the new Congressional District 36 change because of the redistricting litigation? If so and if Sen. Jackson believes that the revised district is not winnable, Sen. Jackson will seek reelection to the Senate and Rep. Taylor will seek reelection to his current House seat. Second, how much money will Attorney Steve Mostyn spend against Rep. Taylor?

Redistricting

SD 10 (Davis) -- I expect the new Senate lines to be upheld and not changed by the redistricting litigation. If so, SD 10 becomes a Republican district not winnable by Sen. Davis (D - Fort Worth). Rep. Kelly Hancock and Rep. Mark Shelton will square off for the SD 10 Republican nomination. Rep. Hancock was first out of the gate and is a strong campaigner. Rep. Shelton is a solid member who is asking the Fort Worth business community to back him. I see this as a very competitive Republican primary, although at this point I would give the edge to Rep. Hancock.

Primary Challenge

SD 25 -- Sen. Jeff Wentworth is being challenged by Dr. Donna Campbell, who ran for Congress against Lloyd Doggett in 2010. Dr. Campbell recently moved to New Braunfels to run. The race remains fluid, and other challengers may get in. I expect San Antonio money to rally around Sen. Wentworth against a non-Bexar County candidate. A complete assessment of this race cannot be made until after the filing deadline. However, it is always risky to bet against incumbents, and I rate Wentworth as the current favorite.

Texas Redistricting Litigation Time Line

2011-10-12T09:31:00.000-05:00

I am advised that the following is the current time line for the Texas congressional and legislative redistricting litigation, although obviously the courts can change it. I expect the November 12 candidate filing date to be delayed, with the possibility that the candidate filing period is simply shortened from four weeks to one week, still ending on December 12.

October 7: The parties’ post-trial briefs were due by this date in the consolidated San Antonio case. The parties also were supposed to file an advisory with the court by this date setting forth their positions on whether the San Antonio panel should go ahead and decide the issues before it or wait for a definitive resolution of the preclearance case in D.C. And last but not least, the parties were supposed to submit briefs to the San Antonio panel with their respective positions on the process for drawing temporary maps.

October 17: The parties in the San Antonio case are to submit proposed temporary state house and congressional maps, together with briefing and supporting data, by this date.

October 24: Objections due in the San Antonio case to proposed temporary maps.

October 25: The Justice Department and intervenors must file their responses in D.C. to the state’s motion for summary judgment on section 5 preclearance issues. Fact and expert discovery also ends on this date in the D.C. case.

October 28: Pre-hearing advisory, including list of witnesses and exhibits and time estimates, due in the San Antonio case in connection with the drawing of temporary maps.

October 31: Deadline for the State of Texas to file a reply brief in the preclearance case. Also the discovery cutoff in the Davis/San Antonio case.

November 2: Oral argument in the D.C. case on the state’s motion for summary judgment on preclearance. This day also is the deadline for dispositive motions in the Davis/San Antonio case. Meanwhile, this day also is the start of a hearing on temporary maps in the San Antonio case.

November 10: The pre-trial conference in the Davis/San Antonio case.

November 12: Candidate filing opens in Texas under the current schedule.

November 14: Trial starts in the Davis/San Antonio case.

December 12: Candidate filing period closes.

Harris County: Sullivan vs. Sumners

2011-10-10T12:34:00.000-05:00

Houston City Council Member Mike Sullivan will challenge Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Don Sumners in the March 2012 Republican Primary. Sumners, who had only $6,700 cash on hand as of his July 15 report, would appear to be very vulnerable. From January 1, 2010, through June 30, 2011, Sumners raised a total of $12,293.

Sullivan had $67,000 cash on hand as of July 15, and has raised more since that time for his city council reelection campaign. Because he did not draw an opponent (the only member of city council who is unopposed for reelection), Sullivan will be able to transfer all of his funds into the race for Tax Assessor.

Court Koenning, who was considering the race, will not run, clearing the way for Sullivan to have a clear shot at Sumners. If Sullivan defeats Sumners in the March primary and wins countywide in the November general election, Sullivan would resign his council seat and take office January 1, 2013. This would most likely set up a special election for his District E council seat in May 2013.

However, winning the Republican nomination is not tantamount to winning the general election. Most observers currently assess the Harris County races in November 2012 as tossups, with Democrats winning some and Republicans winning some.

Commissioner Cactus Jack

2011-09-30T16:35:00.000-05:00

A Harris County Commissioner is one of the most powerful public officials in Texas because of their absolute control over their precinct’s road, bridge and park budgets. A rare vacancy on the court occurred with the resignation of Commissioner Jerry Eversole, and County Judge Ed Emmett has the exclusive power of appointment.

Numerous elected officials and prominent individuals have applied or been considered for the position, and Judge Emmett has conducted an exhaustive search. The challenge that Judge Emmett faces is finding someone who would both meet the Judge’s criteria and objectives for appointment, and who can win a March 6 Republican Primary. The Judge has indicated that he will announce his appointment on Monday.

It appears that Harris County Civil Court-at-Law Judge Jack Cagle, a/k/a Cactus Jack Cagle, is the likely appointee. Judge Cagle was first elected countywide in 2000, and has been reelected three subsequent times. He and Judge Emmett are longstanding friends, and both graduated from Rice University.

Assuming that Judge Cagle is appointed, this will continue the trend of Rice University graduates assuming the reins of government in Houston and Harris County. How about them Owls!

Sen. Chris Harris to Retire

2011-09-26T12:44:00.000-05:00

Word is that Sen. Chris Harris will not seek reelection. This will bring the number of Senate retirements to four: Harris; Jackson; Ogden; and Shapiro. Rep. Rodney Anderson has already declared for SD 9. I expect other candidates will now look at getting into the race.

Update on Texas Legislative Races

2011-09-20T16:51:00.000-05:00

Filing for office in Texas begins November 12 and ends December 12. So far, at least 24 State Representatives will not be seeking reelection to their current seat. There were 35 new members in 2011. I believe that we will have 35 - 40 new members in 2013. There are 3 open Senate seats, and there will be at least 4 new Senators in 2013.

Texas House

Announced Retirements - 6

Fred Brown HD 14

Charlie Howard HD 26

Rick Hardcastle HD 68

Lanham Lyne HD 69

Jim Jackson HD 115

Beverly Woolley HD 136

Announced for Congress - 4

Randy Weber CD 14

Pete Gallego CD 23

Barbara Caraway CD 30

Joaquin Castro CD 35

Announced for Senate - 5

Charles Schwertner SD 5

Ken Paxton SD 8

Rodney Anderson SD 9

Larry Taylor SD 11

Kelly Hancock SD 10

Announced for Other Office - 2

Warren Chisum Railroad Commission

Jose Aliseda District Attorney

Open Seats - 7 (will discuss candidates in subsequent post)

HD 3 - Montgomery and Waller

HD 12 - Brazos et al.

HD 33 - Collin

HD 85 - Ft. Bend, Wharton and Jackson

HD 101- Tarrant

HD 106 - Denton

HD 149 - Williamson

Current Status of Pairings

Erwin Cain is paired with Dan Flynn in HD 2, but he is not going to run against Flynn.

James White and Tuffy Hamilton are paired in HD 19 and only one will return.

Raul Torres, paired with Connie Scott in HD 34, is expected to move into HD 35 and run.

Warren Chisum, paired with Jim Landtroop in HD 88, is running for the Railroad Commission.

Rodney Anderson, paired with Linda Harper Brown in HD 105, is running for the State Senate.

Joe Driver, paired with Cindy Burkett in HD 113, is expected to retire.

Scott Hochberg, paired with Hubert Vo in HD 137, has not announced his plans.

Other House Notes

Will Hartnett is contemplating retirement, and a decision could come as soon as this week.

Chente Quintanilla is contemplating a run for El Paso County Commissioner.

Texas Senate

SD 5 Sen. Steve Ogden announced this morning that he will not run again, and Rep. Charles Schwertner will announce for the seat this afternoon.

SD 8 Sen. Florence Shapiro announced her retirement yesterday. She is unhappy that Rep. Ken Paxton is the favorite to replace her, and has recruited Scott O’Grady into the race.

SD 9 Sen. Chris Harris has announced for reelection, and he will be challenged by Rep. Rodney Anderson.

SD 10 The Justice Department pre-cleared the Senate map under the Voting Rights Act yesterday, and it now appears almost certain that the new Senate lines will be upheld. If so, SD 10 becomes a Republican seat and Rep. Kelly Hancock will win it, replacing Sen. Wendy Davis.

SD 11 Rep. Larry Taylor has announced that he is running to replace Sen. Mike Jackson, who is running for Congress. Rep. Taylor is the early favorite. John Nau is hosting a major Houston fundraiser for him October 18, with every Republican member of the Houston legislative delegation listed as a Host.

SD 25 Sen. Jeff Wentworth has announced for reelection. Donna Campbell, who ran against Cong. Lloyd Doggett last cycle, will challenge him in the primary.

Predictions for 11/8/11 Houston Municipal Elections

2011-09-06T06:04:00.000-05:00

Houston voters adopted terms limits in 1991, and since then only one council incumbent has lost while seeking reelection to the same office. I see that precedent remaining unbroken this cycle. Labor Day is still considered the traditional start of fall campaigns, and tomorrow is the deadline to file for a spot on the November 8 ballot. Even though there is one more day to file, I believe we can safely predict the following races:

Mayor -- Annise Parker will be easily reelected to her second term.

Controller -- Ronald Green is unopposed for his second term.

District Council Members -- Brenda Stardig; Wanda Adams; Mike Sullivan; Al Hoang; Oliver Pennington; Ed Gonzalez and James Rodriguez; will all be reelected.

At Large Council Members -- Steve Costello; Melissa Noriega; and Brad Bradford; will all be reelected. Council Member Jolanda Jones is the one competitive race (see below).

Open and New Seats -- There are three open seats and two new seats on the ballot. Here is how I see them today:

District B -- There will be a runoff between Alvin Byrd and someone.

District C -- There may or may not be a runoff, but it is irrelevant: Ellen Cohen wins this seat.

District J -- There will be a runoff and Mike Laster will be in it.

District K -- Larry Green wins this seat. Today, he is unopposed.

At-Large 2 -- The top three candidates are Bo Fraga; David Robinson; and Kristi Thibaut. Two of these three will be in a runoff.

At-Large 5 -- Widely disliked by her Council colleagues, brash, outspoken and flamboyantly attired, Council Member Jo Jones is the The Most Interesting Member of Council. In 2009, she barely survived a runoff with Jack Christie. With an ongoing Harris County District Attorney investigation, many had written off Jones’ reelection chances earlier this year.

Jones then reported raising $113,586 on her July 15 report. She deftly handled and capitalized on the Red Light Camera court ruling and City Council vote. She has proven to be a tireless campaigner, and is showing the competitive drive of the world-class athlete that she was. Love her or hate her, she is likely coming back to City Council in 2012.

Correction: I originally stated that no incumbent had lost since the advent of term limits. That is incorrect: Sylvia Garcia defeated Lloyd Kelley for Controller in 1997 when he was the incumbent. It is true that no incumbent Council Member has lost since term limits were adopted in 1991.

Second Correction: Robert -- I think the one exception is when Burt Keller defeated (recently-deceased) Jean Kelley, wife of former Councilman John Kelley. She was running for a second term when Keller beat her in 1999. Great blog! Andy Teas

Surf's Up!

2011-09-02T15:16:00.001-05:00

Brazoria and Galveston County are active this weekend, and not just at the beach!

Yesterday, Rep. Larry Taylor announced that he is running for State Senate District 11 to replace Sen. Mike Jackson, who is seeking election to Congress. At this point, Taylor is unopposed and appears to be a heavy favorite to win the seat. When Mike Jackson was first elected to the Senate in 1998, winning a promotion from the State House, he was unopposed. History may very well repeat itself.

Rep. Randy Weber appears to be a nearing a final decision to run for Congress to replace Cong. Ron Paul, who is retiring. If Weber does run for Congress, Pearland Mayor Pro-Tem Ed Thompson appears to be the overwhelming favorite to replace him in HD 29. Expect Mayor Thompson’s announcement for the State House to come shortly after Rep. Weber declares for Congress.

In Friendswood, Dr. Greg Bonnen is nearing a final decision to run for Rep. Taylor’s HD 24. Dr. Bonnen is a board-certified neurosurgeon who lives in Friendswood and has offices in Southeast Houston and Lake Jackson. If he runs, Dr. Bonnen will commit an initial $200,000 to the race and begin raising money from there. A graduate of the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, Dr. Bonnen is also the older brother of Rep. Dennis Bonnen who represent the adjoining HD 25.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend!

Will McCaul Run for Senate?

2011-08-30T21:03:00.002-05:00

Congressman Michael McCaul has recently gotten serious about running for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate from Texas. With Labor Day fast approaching, it appears the campaign needs to quickly make a go/no go decision. If he runs, he is reportedly prepared to spend $4 to $6 million of his personal fortune on the race. He will have to because as of June 30, McCaul only reported $143,256 cash on hand.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is now fully engaged in the race, with a goal to raise $3 million before the September 30 FEC reporting deadline. I anticipate that Dewhurst will be a strong fundraiser because donors know he is either going to be U. S. Senator or Lt. Governor, both extremely powerful offices.

Dewhurst intends to raise $7.5 million for the primary and spend whatever it takes to win. Of course, both Dewhurst and McCaul will have to weigh that under federal law a candidate can only be repaid a maximum of $250,000 for personal loans to the campaign.

If McCaul does announce for the Senate, that will also set off a scramble for his Congressional District that runs from Austin to Houston. However, I think it is more likely McCaul runs for reelection to the House, and then seeks an open Texas Attorney General seat in 2014.

8/31 CORRECTION: I originally stated that Dewhurst intends to spend $7.5 million on the primary. I was in error. He intends to raise $7.5 million for the primary, and spend whatever it takes to win.

Perry Rockets into First

2011-08-24T08:45:00.003-05:00

Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a poll yesterday with Gov. Perry leading in Iowa among Republican primary voters at 22%; Romney 19%; Bachman 18%; and Paul 16%. A Gallup poll revealed Perry and President Obama tied nationally at 47% among registered voters. RedState.com reports that PPP will release a poll today showing Perry with a double digit lead nationally among Republican primary voters.

It has been a wild ride for Team Perry since their presidential launch August 13. Perry has been enthusiastically received in Iowa and South Carolina -- less so in New Hampshire. Rivals and the media have pounced on comments regarding Ben Bernanke, global warming and evolution. The House of Bush led by Karl Rove has intoned that Perry’s comments are “not presidential” and admonished him not to criticize former President George W. Bush’s administration.

Ironically, Mr. Rove’s criticisms are actually helping to fuel Perry’s meteoric rise among Republican primary voters. One of Perry’s greatest challenges nationally will be to overcome “Texas fatigue” and “Bush fatigue.” Attacks from the House of Bush assist this objective.

With lift-off successfully complete, the Perry campaign is now approaching stage two: Fundraising. September 30 is the deadline for receipt of contributions to be reported to the FEC October 15. The game of expectations will be played over the next five weeks as to the amount Perry will need to raise to maintain his trajectory. Based on what I am seeing and hearing so far, I anticipate that when Team Perry ignites the stage two fundraising rockets on October 15 it will be equally impressive.

Perry has Flawless Launch

2011-08-15T07:00:00.001-05:00

Gov. Perry announced for the Presidency on Saturday in South Carolina, and then subsequently visited New Hampshire and Iowa over the weekend. Experts and pundits question whether Perry will meet the expectations and become the main rival to Gov. Romney for the Republican nomination, or instead wither under the stark light of national scrutiny and become the Fred Thompson of this cycle. Some stated that the first 48 hours of Perry's candidacy would be crucial given his one and only opportunity to make a first impression as a late entrant into the race.

Team Perry passed the first 48 hours with flying colors. His speech to Red State in South Carolina was highly rated; having Dave Carney made him an immediate player in New Hampshire; and he bested Michelle Bachman in their first joint appearance. Pundits now have moved the goal post and opine that this first week will be the crucial one. According to Politico this morning:

"Perry got rave reviews during his first two days of campaigning, but it still feels like he might be a mere flavor of the month. A full week on the trail could go a long way to assuage suspicions that he's a latter day John Connolly or Phil Gramm, two swashbuckling Texans who flamed out after arriving in the early states to great fanfare. With that in mind, we have these questions for the week ahead. (1) Can Rick Perry defy the skeptics and avoid even a medium-sized gaffe in his first week as a national candidate?"

Time will tell, but his trajectory looks good so far.

Perry Reminisces; Endorses Smitherman

2011-08-10T08:18:00.004-05:00

Gov. Perry held a final fundraiser last night at the Austin Club for his state officeholder account. On Saturday, he will make it clear in South Carolina that he is running for the Republican Presidential nomination.

The Governor appeared relaxed and slowly worked the room speaking to each person individually for a minute or two. Most of the attendees were long-time supporters of the Governor. After shaking everyone's hand for over an hour, the Governor then made some brief remarks. He opened by noting that in December 1998, he attended a reception in this same Austin Club room and Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock turned to him and said that Gov. George W. Bush was going to be President. It was the first time anyone had said that to him, and the Governor happened to be standing in that exact spot again last night.

After speaking for a few minutes, he then called Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman to his side. The Governor thanked Commissioner Smitherman for his public service since 2004 on the PUC and the Railroad Commission, endorsed him, and called on his friends and supporters to assist Commissioner Smitherman in his upcoming election.

As the Governor concluded, it struck me that his remarks had a valedictory feel to them: It is clear the Governor intends to win.

City of Houston Mayoral Elections

2011-08-08T05:57:00.001-05:00

Today, August 8, is the first day candidates can file for Mayor on the November 8 City of Houston ballot. Filing will close September 7 at 5 p.m.

Mayor Annise Parker will be seeking reelection to her second two-year term. City of Houston term limits restrict officeholders to serving a maximum of six years (three two-year terms) in each office. As of today, Mayor Parker has no politically credible opposition and will be reelected in November. Since the advent of term limits in Houston, every Mayor has served the maximum six years allowed -- Bob Lanier (1992 - 97); Lee Brown (1998 - 2003); and Bill White (2004 - 09). Only Mayor Lee Brown was seriously contested after his first election. Mayor Lanier won his second term with 90.80% and his third term with 82.66%. Mayor White won his second term with 91.03% and his third term with 86.48%.

The race Mayor Parker is really running this fall is to be unopposed by credible opposition for her third and final term in the November 2013 election. Mayor Brown only won his second term with 67.29% against two non-credible candidates, Jack Terrence and Outlaw Josey Wales, IV. Brown was then perceived as vulnerable, and in his final election drew two strong opponents -- Orlando Sanchez and Chris Bell -- and was forced into a runoff squeaking by with 51.67% of the vote.

In my judgment, Mayor Parker needs to break 70% in her reelection on November 8 or the 2013 Mayoral election will immediately begin. Bill King is seriously contemplating a run in 2013, believing that it would be easier to beat Parker one on one than to wait for 2015 and plunge into a crowded field for an open seat. If Parker is perceived as vulnerable (i.e. <70%), that could attract other credible candidates in 2013 in addition to Mr. King.

However, let's assume Mayor Parker is reelected in 2011 and 2013 -- certainly history suggest that is what will happen. Candidates are already being discussed to run in 2015 when Parker is term limited. Names I see and hear today are City Controller Ronald Green; At-Large Council Members Brad Bradford, Steve Costello and Sue Lovell; District Council Members James Rodriguez and Ed Gonzalez; State Representative Carol Alvarado; Sheriff Adrian Garcia; Ben Hall and Bill King.

History again suggests that the business establishment will lead a strong effort to seek to elect the first Hispanic Mayor of Houston in 2015. Houston is one of the most multi-cultural cities in the nation, and its business leadership values and supports diversity. It is simply a question of when, not if, Hispanics take the reins of power in Houston and Texas. Just as Houston business leadership rallied around and supported Mayor Brown to be the first African-American Mayor of Houston, I foresee a similar effort to support and elect the first Hispanic Mayor of Houston.

One name that has not been mentioned so far in the 2015 discussion is former Commissioner Sylvia Garcia. There has been much speculation, including some by this author, regarding what Commissioner Garcia will do next. She will not oppose Sen. Mario Gallegos, who is currently headed for reelection without opposition in the March 2012 Democratic primary. Some have speculated that she should run for Harris County Attorney or Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector next year.

In my judgment, Garcia should consider waiting and begin laying the groundwork to run for Mayor of Houston in 2015. She would have strong support in the Hispanic community, cross over appeal to both white moderates and progressives, and be viewed favorably by the business community. Just a thought.

Former CM Pam Holm to run for State Rep 136

2011-08-02T17:47:00.003-05:00

Pam Holm, who represented District G on the Houston City Council from 2004 through 2009, has decided to run to replace Speaker Beverly Woolley in Texas HD 136.

Ms. Holm was a prolific fundraiser the three successful campaigns she ran for City Council and in her unsuccessful race for City Controller in 2009. She was also a tireless door to door campaigner when first elected in 2003, knocking on 19,000 doors in her winning campaign against 6 male opponents. At campaign forums, she would describe the field as "six guys and a winner." Many of those doors are still in HD 136 because of the strong overlap between District G and HD 136.

Other names discussed as interested in the race are: Mike Schofield, a Senior Advisor in Governor Perry's Budget, Planning and Policy Office, and a long-time Republican activist in Harris County; Former Houston CM Bert Keller, who also previously represented District G; Donna Bahorich, District Director for Sen. Dan Patrick; and Amy Peck, fellow blogger and District Assistant to Sen. Dan Patrick.

It will certainly be a crowded field of credible candidates. Holm, in addition to being first out of the gate, is the initial frontrunner.

George Greanias Will Survive

2011-07-29T14:17:00.004-05:00

George Greanias, METRO CEO, was suspended yesterday by the METRO Board for viewing pornographic websites on his personal computer while at work. I have known Mr. Greanias since I was a student at Rice University, and he is a good and honorable man.

Mr. Greanias made a mistake. It was stupid to view pornography while in his office, and he is certainly paying the price of public embarrassment and humiliation in addition to the loss of a week's pay. But it was not illegal and it did not involve any loss of public funds -- there is no marginal cost to access an internal wireless access point or intranet.

METRO Chairman Garcia and Mr. Greanias are to be commended in the way they forthrightly handled the matter. The cardinal rule of politics is it is not the act that gets you, it is the cover up. When confronted with the evidence by his IT department, Greanias instructed them to take it to the Chairman of the Board. Similarly the Chairman and the Board addressed it in a forthright and transparent manner.

People make mistakes. Mr. Greanias made a grievous one. But, it does not wipe out the excellent job that he has done leading METRO or his lifetime of public service. He deserves a second chance, and in my political judgment he will get it.

Texas House Update

2011-07-25T05:49:00.004-05:00

Expectations are that there will be another large freshman class when the 83rd Texas House convenes in January 2013 rivaling in size the 37 new members for the 82nd House. Already I count 15 likely departures from the House.

Resignations/Retirements -- 4

HD 14 -- Fred Brown has resigned and a special election to fill his unexpired term will be held November 8.

HD 88 -- Warren Chisum is not seeking reelection and instead will run for the Railroad Commission seat currently held by Elizabeth Ames Jones, who is running for the U. S. Senate. Christi Craddick is also planning to run for Jones' Railroad Commission seat, which will set up a fascinating primary race to watch.

HD 115 -- Jim Jackson has announced his retirement and will not seek reelection.

HD 136 -- Speaker Pro Tem Beverly Woolley has decided to retire. Speaker Woolley, who was first elected in 1986, was widely regarded as performing superbly as Speaker Pro Tem this session and providing mature, seasoned leadership for the Texas House. She will be a major loss for the Houston area delegation.

Pairings -- 6

Twelve members are currently paired, which means that 6 will not return.

HD 2 -- Dan Flynn and Erwin Cain

HD 19 -- James White and Tuffy Hamilton

HD 34 -- Connie Scott and Raul Torres

HD 105 -- Rodney Anderson and Linda Harper-Brown

HD 113 -- Cindy Burkett and Joe Driver

HD 137 -- Scott Hochberg and Hubert Vo

Running for the Texas Senate -- 2
SD 10 -- Kelly Hancock (HD 91)
SD 11 -- Larry Taylor (HD 24)

Running for Congress -- 3
CD 25 -- Jason Isaac (HD 45) and Sid Miller (HD 59)
CD 35 -- Joaquin Castro (HD 125)

The list of voluntary House departures will grow if Senators Ogden, Shapiro, or Wentworth decide to retire, and if Mark Shelton and Vicki Truitt run for SD 10. When you throw in additional retirements, we are probably looking at 25 new House members before the voters render any decisions in the March 2012 primary or November 2012 general election.

Texas Senate Update

2011-07-18T18:01:00.007-05:00

Lt. Governor David Dewhurst will announce for the U.S. Senate on Wednesday. At this point, it does not appear probable that Sen. Dan Patrick will challenge him in the Republican primary. However, even with SD 7 (Patrick) moving off the radar screen, we are still likely looking at 5 open Republican seats in the March 2012 primary as follows:

SD 5 (Ogden) -- Rep. Charles Schwertner and Rep. Larry Gonzales are each making calls for support in the event Sen. Ogden retires, as is former Rep. Dan Gattis. At this point, I would give the edge to Schwertner.

SD 8 (Shapiro) -- Sen. Shapiro is likely to retire, and Rep. Ken Paxton appears to have the inside track to replace her.

SD 10 (Davis) -- Sen. Davis may or may not run in this seat, but redistricting has made it a Republican seat. Rep. Kelly Hancock appears to have the lead to replace her, although Rep. Mark Shelton and Rep. Vicki Truitt are also considering the race.

SD 11 (Jackson) -- Sen. Jackson is moving ever closer to deciding to run for CD 36. If he does, Rep. Larry Taylor will run for the Senate as may former Rep. Robert Talton. This would be the premier bout on the Texans for Lawsuit Reform vs. Texas Trial Lawyers Association/Steve Mostyn 2012 fight card. Taylor is the frontrunner.

SD 25 (Wentworth) -- I continue to believe that Sen. Wentworth will not seek reelection. If he does, expect TLR to go all out to defeat him in the primary.

Two other primary challenges are on the horizon.

SD 6 (Gallegos) -- Former Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia is quietly mulling whether to run against Sen. Mario Gallegos, although no decision has been made or is necessarily imminent. Garcia reported $751,601 cash on hand as of June 30; Gallegos reported $71,190 cash on hand. They both use Robert Jara has their consultant, so it will be interesting to watch this unfold.

SD 9 (Harris) -- If Sen. Harris seeks reelection, TLR intends to defeat him the primary.

Gov. Perry will announce for President either later this month or in early August. If both he and Dewhurst were to win, the Texas Senate would select one of its members to serve as acting Governor and we would have a special election for that open Senate seat. In contrast to 2011 when only two new Senators were sworn in for the Regular Session, 2013 appears likely to have a substantial contingent of freshman Senators.

RESPONSE FROM DANIEL F. MCCLUNG, CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES, INC.: "Senator Mario Gallegos and former Commissioner Sylvia Garcia are longtime friends and strong political allies. They are also both decades-long clients and friends of this firm, and as its Senior Partner, I have spoken with both this morning and each has asked me to say to you and others that a race between them is not a possibility. Thanks for sharing with your readers."

Legislative and Personal Adjournment

2011-07-01T19:24:00.002-05:00

After 170 days, the 83rd Texas Legislature has adjourned sine die. Sine die is Latin and means without day. In other words, the 83rd Legislature has adjourned with no appointed day for resumption.

I, too, am adjourning. Unlike the Legislature, I will resume blogging on July 18. There is an additional Senate retirement to report and two brewing Senate primary races.

Have a great, safe and happy 4th of July!

House Members Eyeing Open Senate Seats

2011-06-27T20:06:00.007-05:00

As the First Called Session winds down and adjourns sine die on Wednesday, the political class will immediately turn its attention to the 2012 elections. December 12 is the deadline to file for the March 2012 primary election, and the filing period will commence November 14.

At this point, I already see a possibility of 5 open seats if the current Texas Senate map holds.

SD 5 -- Although no final decision has been made, the odds are that Sen. Ogden retires and does not seek reelection. Rep. Charles Schwertner is eyeing the seat.

SD 7 -- We will know soon whether Sen. Patrick's exploratory committee for the U.S. Senate has been successful. If Patrick files for the U. S. Senate, former Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt will run for SD 7 and perhaps Rep. Patricia Harless.

SD 10 -- This seat was drawn to elect a Republican, and Sen. Wendy Davis is highly unlikely to be reelected if she runs. Reps. Kelly Hancock is certain to run, and Rep. Vicki Truitt, Rep. Mark Shelton and Dee Kelly, Jr. are considering it.

SD 11 -- Sen. Mike Jackson is taking a hard look at running for Congress in the new CD 36. If he does, expect Rep. Randy Weber to run for his Senate seat and perhaps Rep. Larry Taylor.

SD 25 -- Sen. Jeff Wentworth has long been rumored to be retiring after the legislative session. If Sen. Wentworth retires or does not seek reelection, expect Rep. Lyle Larson to run.

In addition to the open seats, it appears that there could be vigorous primary challenges in two or three other seats. To paraphrase hurricane forecasters, it promises to be a busy Senate primary season!

Perry and Dewhurst Will Run

2011-06-23T20:29:00.006-05:00

In my judgment Gov. Rick Perry will announce for President this summer. When Perry declares, he immediately vaults into the top tier of Republican candidates. Nate Silver of the New York Times rates Perry in the first tier today even before he is an announced candidate.

I view the race for the Republican nomination as having three category leaders today: The establishment frontrunner -- Romney; the establishment alternative to Romney -- Pawlenty; and the TEA Party/social conservative candidate -- Perry and Bachmann. As a southern governor with a strong economic record and message to run on, Perry should be able to power past Bachmann. As the most polished political orator on the Republican side today, Perry will outshine Pawlenty. I could easily see the race for the Republican nomination coming down to Romney and Perry.

Even though it appears that Perry will run for President, Lt. Governor Dewhurst still intends to run for the U.S. Senate in my opinion. When he declares, he will be the immediate frontrunner and may ultimately clear the field on the Republican side. No other Republican can approach Dewhurst's name identification or wealth. That is why you are seeing Republicans exit the Senate primary: Michael Williams is now running Congressional District 33 in North Texas; Roger Williams is soon to follow him into the congressional race; and Sen. Dan Patrick will not enter if Dewhurst is in the race. Tom Leppert will find it tough to race money with Dewhurst in the contest, and Ted Cruz will begin to recognize the financial and name identification mountain he faces. In fact, it would not surprise me for Ted Cruz to ultimately not make the race and instead wait and run for an open Attorney General seat in 2014.

Once Perry runs for President, I believe it highly unlikely that he will run for Governor again in 2014 if he is not elected President. This will cause the cascade of Republican dominoes we thought was going to happen in 2010. In 2014 Abbott will run unopposed for the Republican gubernatorial nomination; Combs, Staples and Patterson will square off for the Lieutenant Governor nomination; Cruz and possibly Dan Branch will compete for Attorney General in the Republican primary; and there will be wide open contests for State Comptroller, Land Commissioner and Agriculture Commissioner on the Republican side. It is going to be very expensive for Texas Republican donors over the next three and one-half years!

Dan Patrick Poll

2011-06-08T17:44:00.006-05:00

State Senator Dan Patrick just released a poll with a sample of 450 likely Republican primary voters showing him leading the Republican field for the U. S. Senate over the other announced candidates (does not include Lt. Gov. Dewhurst who has not announced):

Dan Patrick 19%
Tom Leppert 11%
Roger Williams 6%
Elizabeth Ames Jones 4%
Ted Cruz 2%
Not sure/refused 58%

The poll also shows him leading Ted Cruz in a hypothetical runoff 29% to 6% with 64% undecided.

There should be two keys for Patrick in deciding whether or not to make the race. One, does Lt. Gov. Dewhurst run? Second, can Patrick raise the money to be competitive statewide?

If Dewhurst announces, the Lieutenant Governor is the immediate frontrunner (probably why Patrick campaign did not release his poll numbers -- they certainly polled him). However, if Dewhurst decides not to run, Patrick clearly runs.

With respect to the second key, can Patrick raise the $6 to $10 million he needs to be competitive in a Republican primary with Dewhurst in the race? Probably not, because Dewhurst will grab the vast majority of Houston business money and Austin statewide money.

However, what the poll does show us is that Sen. Patrick is very formidable in a Republican primary, and that he is trying to stop Ted Cruz's recent wave of conservative endorsements.

Pyrrhic Victory

2011-05-31T09:37:00.007-05:00

I believe it was a major strategic mistake for Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Ft. Worth) to filibuster SB 1811 and force the First Called Session.

A Regular Session of the Texas Legislature is designed to kill bills: A Called Session is designed to pass bills. In a Regular Session, approximately 6,000 bills compete for scarce committee and calendar time: In a Called Session, the only bills eligible for consideration are those determined to be within the Call of the Governor. In a Regular Session, the Senate has a blocker bill and requires two-thirds or 21 votes to pass most legislation: In a Called Session, there will be no blocker bill in the Senate and it will only require a majority or 16 votes to pass legislation.

The Democrats are hoping that the public will become engaged and enraged in a Called Session regarding the $4 billion in proposed cuts to public education. However, the Republican leadership intends to pass SB 1811 quickly before the opposition can fully mobilize.

The Republican leadership will then be free to pass other conservative issues that failed in the Regular Session. Lt. Gov. Dewhurst listed 9 issues that he would like to see on the Call in a letter to the Governor yesterday:

SB 1811 relating to school finance;
SB 23 relating to Medicaid cost savings;
SB 8 relating to the quality and efficiency of health care;
HB 5 relating to a health care compact;
HB 12 relating to sanctuary cities;
HB 272 relating to TWIA;
HB 400 relating to efficiencies in the operation of public schools;
HB 1937 relating to TSA groping; and
Congressional redistricting.

Without the two-thirds rule in the Senate and the logjam of bills in both the House and Senate, the floor time and votes will now be there to pass all of these bills -- and others such as campus carry -- if the Republican leadership so desires. Sen. Davis passionately believed that she was making a principled stand Sunday night and successfully killed SB 1811. However, it portends a Pyrrhic victory for the Democrats.

House and Senate Conferees Agree on Budget

2011-05-26T09:28:00.002-05:00

The HB 1 Conference Committee just met and approved the budget for FY 2012/13. The Conference Committee Report will now go to the full House and Senate, where it will need to be approved by a majority vote in each body. This is anticipated to take place Saturday.

SB 1811 is the remaining must pass bill for the biennial budget. It is currently in conference between the House and Senate as they negotiate how to allocate the $4 billion in cuts to public education. The procedural deadline for the SB 1811 CCR to be filed is midnight Saturday. Practically, however, it also needs to occur tomorrow or it will be vulnerable to a filibuster in the Senate.

HB 1 and SB 1811 provide a balanced budget for the FY 2012/13 biennium. To eliminate the deficit in the current biennium ending August 31, HB 4 must still pass. HB 4 passed the Senate last night, and it now goes back to the House for concurrence or conference. HB 275 appropriating $3.2 billion from the Rainy Day Fund to pay the deficit for the current FY 2010/11 deficit has already passed both bodies and is headed to the Governor for signature.

Senator Ogden said that the Texas budget this session is the hardest matter he has ever worked on. However, he stated that if each of the above four bills passes and becomes law, Texas will have a balanced budget for the next two years and will have covered its current biennial deficit. And, most importantly to this observer in the Gallery, we will have avoided a Special Session!

The End is Near (For Real, This Time)

2011-05-23T06:20:00.002-05:00

Eight days remain in the 82nd Regular Session. Midnight Tuesday is the deadline for Senate bills to pass the House on second reading; midnight Wednesday is the deadline in both the House and the Senate for all bills to pass.

The 82nd Texas Legislature convened on January 11 with two dominant issues on the agenda: the budget and redistricting.

At this point, it is likely, although not certain, the budget will pass. Lt. Gov. Dewhurst and Speaker Straus have announced an agreement in principle on the budget. In the next three days both the House and Senate are scheduled to pass the remaining bills necessary to finalize the budget. A budget conferee told me there was an 80% chance everything will get done; last week, the conferee said the odds would have been 30%.

House and Senate redistricting plans have passed, and the legislature is cautiously optimistic that Gov. Perry will allow the plans to become law without his signature. Time has run out for a congressional redistricting map to pass, although it is expected that a plan will be laid out this week.

Gov. Perry's aides are telling legislators that a special session on congressional redistricting alone will not be called. Instead the federal courts will be allowed to draw the map. In the summer of 2003, Gov. Perry called three special sessions so that the legislature could draw congressional maps and replace a court drawn plan. The difference between the summer of 2003 and 2011? The Presidency. Team Perry wants everything wrapped up and the legislature gone by May 30; thereby eliminating legislative distractions this summer as Gov. Perry continues to blossom into a very viable possibility for the Republican presidential nomination.

Only Question is the Call for the Special Session

2011-05-16T15:45:00.007-05:00

There will be a special session of the Texas legislature this summer, most likely beginning July 11. There is no longer time to pass a congressional redistricting plan. If the Governor does not call the legislature back, then the federal courts will draw the congressional maps and apportion the four new seats. It is inconceivable to me that the Governor will not call the legislature back, given that he called three special sessions in 2003 for congressional redistricting.

House and Senate conferees continue to negotiate HB 1 and attempt to avoid a special session. Wednesday will be a critical day as the House takes up the fiscal matters bills. Unless these bills pass, the call or agenda for the special session will include all or part of the budget along with congressional redistricting.

Semana de los Muertos

2011-05-09T09:41:00.003-05:00

The eighteenth week of the Regular Session is always an interesting one. At midnight tonight, House bills that have not been reported from committee are no longer eligible for further consideration. By 10 p.m. tomorrow night, the final House calendar for Thursday must be set. Midnight on Thursday is the last day a non-local House bill can pass the House on Second Reading. If a non-local House bill is not set on the calendar by Thursday, or if it does not pass the House by midnight Thursday, it is dead.

In addition to procedural deadlines, chubbing also takes its toll on House bills this week. Chubbing is a legislative delay tactic in which legislators talk at length on every bill on the calendar in order to kill most of the calendar or a bill further down the calendar.

Finally, the Texas House reached a boiling point last Saturday. In one of the most raucous House sessions since 2003, the Republicans employed the nuclear option and called the previous question on a tort reform bill that the Democrats were successfully delaying on procedural grounds. Once the previous question was called, no further debate or amendment was permitted and the bill passed.

For all of these reasons this will be the week of dead bills in the Texas House -- Semana de los Muertos.

Demise of Senate 2/3rds Rule

2011-05-03T19:55:00.004-05:00

The Texas Senate operates under rules and traditions that require 2/3rds of the Senators present to vote in favor of any bill coming to the floor for debate. Partisanship by both sides has put increasing strain on the 2/3rds tradition. Last session and this one an exception was made to the 2/3rds rule for the Voter ID bill, which only requires a majority vote. Tomorrow the 2/3rds tradition will shatter.

Senate rules state that bills will be taken up in the order they are reported from committee. At the beginning of each session, the Senate passes a "blocker" bill out of committee but never brings it to the floor. Therefore, every other Senate bill considered during the session is not in the regular order of business, and the Senate must suspend the rules with a 2/3rds vote to consider the bill.

Senate Rule 5.10 states that calendar Wednesday and Thursday are House bill days. Under the rule, House bills are taken up before Senate bills. HB 1, the budget, is the first House bill in the order and therefore the Senate does not need to suspend the rules to consider it. A simple majority of 16 Senators can vote to bring up the bill.

The Senate failed to suspend on the budget this evening by a party line 19 - 12 vote. Tomorrow, on House bill day, it will bring the budget back up and only need a simple majority or 16 votes to pass it to Third Reading. This is good news if you want to avoid a summer special session. It's bad news if you believe in the 2/3rds tradition of the Senate, because tomorrow partisanship by both sides will effectively end it.

Legislative Management 101: First the Budget, then Redistricting

2011-04-25T07:38:00.005-05:00

With only five weeks to go in the Regular Session, we have yet to see a Senate redistricting plan. We received a sneak peak this weekend with a Texas Tribune article detailing the fierce fight between Sens. Fraser and Duncan over Abilene and Taylor County. On the other hand, the House redistricting plan is out of committee and headed to the floor on Wednesday.

Why the difference? Legislative Management 101 states that you do not get to the see the redistricting maps until you have voted on the budget. Scheduling the budget vote before the release of redistricting maps keeps you focused on the leadership's budget priorities. You always wonder if you get crosswise with the leadership on the budget, will it have an impact on your new district?

Assuming that the Senate passes a budget this week, expect to see the Senate lines next week.

Two Shortfalls

2011-04-21T09:46:00.005-05:00

Senate Finance voted out SB 1 this morning on an 11 - 4 vote. Sens. Lucio, Patrick, Whitmire and Zaffirini voted no. This means that SB 1 does not currently have the necessary 21 votes to be brought up for debate on the Senate floor next week, which requires all 19 Republicans plus 2 Democrats. They have the 2 Democrats (Hinojosa and West), but are short at least 1 Republican (Patrick).

Patrick is a no because SB 1 spends an additional $3 billion from the Rainy Day Fund for the 2012-13 biennium. Ultimately, this will also turn out to be the difference in conference with the House as well. House leadership and the Governor have stated unequivocally that they will not support any additional spending from the Rainy Day Fund.

Accordingly, there are two shortfalls in the budget. One is the necessary votes to suspend in the Senate so that it can be debated on the floor. The second is the $3 billion the Senate proposes to spend from the Rainy Day Fund, which the House and the Governor say they will not support.

Budget Update

2011-04-18T17:14:00.004-05:00

There are six weeks left in the Regular Session. The House has passed a biennium budget spending $77.6 billion in General Revenue. House Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts has said that he believes he sees another $4.3 to $4.5 billion in non-tax revenue the House would spend. For example, you have the $830 million in education funding coming to Texas now that the Doggett amendment has been removed. Additionally, the House Appropriations Committee voted out today several fiscal bills that would generate the following revenue for the biennium: $1.8 billion in payment deferrals; $1 billion in tax speedups; and $200 million from accelerating forfeiture of unclaimed property to the state.

Assume the House budget ultimately increases by $4.5 billion to $82.1 billion. The question is what number will it take to make a deal with the Senate in the Regular Session?

Senate Finance is scheduled to vote out its version of the budget on Thursday and take it to the Senate floor next week. I don't know the amount of the budget, but I believe that it will be in the $85 to $87 billion range. The real gap between the Senate and House when the budget gets to conference during the first week of May is likely to be $3 to $5 billion. At this point, it is anybody's guess whether that gap can be bridged by May 30.

Dallas County Loses Two Seats

2011-04-13T17:18:00.002-05:00

As expected, Dallas County loses two seats. District 101, currently represented by Cindy Burkett, is now in Tarrant County. District 106, currently represented by Rodney Anderson, is now in Denton County.

Harris County loses a State House seat

2011-04-13T17:04:00.002-05:00

Rep. Solomons, Chairman of the House Redistricting Committee, has released his proposed map for the Texas House. Harris County loses one seat going from 25 members to 24. Rep. Hubert Vo currently represents District 149, which will now be located in Central Texas.

Layoffs Loom

2011-03-26T20:23:00.007-05:00

The Texas House will take up the state's biennial budget on Friday and address a multi-billion budget shortfall. CSHB 1 appropriates $163.5 billion for FY 2012-13, which is $23 billion or 12.3% less than the 2010-11 appropriation. The Legislative Budget Board forecasts that this will result in a significant reduction in state and local government employees, including teacher layoffs.

At the local level, the City of Houston is facing a $130 million budget shortfall for FY 2012 beginning July 1. In order to close its budget deficit for the current fiscal year, the City drew down its fund balances to the 5% statutory minimum. 90% of the City budget is personnel costs. Next fiscal year, there is really no other place to cut than personnel -- i.e. municipal employees, police officers and firefighters. The City estimates that 2,300 employees could be laid off.

Elected officials are facing a Hobson's choice -- e.g. a free choice in which only one option is offered. The only choice voters are offering is cut the budget and shrink the size of government; voters emphatically stated in the 2010 elections that raising taxes is not an option. However, when you shrink the size of government, you are laying off teachers, police officers and firefighters, among others.

It has been happening across the country. According to the March 5 Wall St. Journal, "States have cut 82,000 jobs since their payrolls peaked in August 2008. Localities have eliminated 377,000 jobs since their high point in September 2008."

Layoffs now loom in Texas for state and local government employees. That is what the voters asked for. Now we will see if it is what they want.

The Budget

2011-03-20T20:40:00.007-05:00

Today is the 70th day of the 82nd Regular Session, the halfway mark. The budget, the only bill that must pass, is scheduled to be voted out of House Appropriations this week and to hit the House floor next week. Of the Governor's five emergency items, four have passed the Senate: eminent domain; sonogram; balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution; and voter ID. The House has passed sonogram (different version from the Senate), and is scheduled to consider the voter ID legislation on the floor today. Sanctuary city has passed out of House State Affairs. In general, the legislature has made workmanlike progress on the priorities of the Republican legislative leadership.

However, there is a growing chasm between the House and the Senate on the budget. The Governor and House leadership have agreed to spend $3.2 billion from the Rainy Day Fund to balance the FY 2010-11 budget. But, the Governor and House leadership have stated that they will not spend anything from the Rainy Day Fund for the FY 2012-13 budget, nor will the House pass any tax revenue increases. This will result in a House budget for FY 2012-13 of approximately $77 billion of general revenue spending. The FY 2010-11 budget was approximately $87 billion of general revenue spending, including federal stimulus funds of $6.4 billion.

The votes are not there in the Senate Finance Committee to pass a $77 billion budget, much less in the Senate itself. To pass the Senate in Regular Session, the budget will probably need to be at least $83 billion in general revenue. In other words, the Senate is looking to spend at least $6 billion more than the House. If the House says no more Rainy Day Funds and no additional tax revenue, it is going to be very difficult to find the additional money. At this point, you would have to say one or more special sessions is a growing possibility.

All Eyes on the House

2011-03-14T18:29:00.003-05:00

A balanced budget is the only bill that the Texas legislature must pass. However, the budget that the legislature passed in May 2009 is no longer balanced because of the economic downturn. According to the Comptroller, in January the budget was approximately $4.3 billion short for the state's fiscal year ending August 31, 2011. Budget cuts and sales tax revenue increases have reduced the shortfall, but there remains a need for additional cuts, payment deferrals or withdrawals from the Rainy Day Fund in order for the state to avoid running out of money in July of this year.

House Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts has filed HB 275 proposing to spend $4.3 billion from the Rainy Day Fund. This bill is planned to be voted out of House Appropriations tomorrow and to hit the House floor as early as this week. It will require 90 votes (3/5ths) for HB 275 to pass the House. Gov. Perry has opposed spending the Rainy Day Fund for this shortfall, stating that it is too early to dip into the Fund before considering all possible budget cuts. Chairman Pitts says that the Appropriations Committee has scrubbed the budget and that they have made all available cuts for the current biennium.

It is unclear whether there are currently 90 votes to spend the Rainy Day Fund to balance the FY2011 budget. Republicans, particularly the freshman, want the political cover of having the Governor say it is okay. Democrats strongly believe that the FY 2012/2013 budget is too draconian, and could vote no on HB 275 in protest.

In my judgment, there is no way that the Senate will support a budget that does not at least spend the Rainy Day Fund to close the shortfall in the current biennium. Thus, all eyes will be on the House. If HB 275 does not pass in some form, we will be looking at a long, hot, summer Special Session in Austin.

Redistricting

2011-02-28T21:54:00.006-06:00

The census numbers are in and the blood sport of politics has begun: Redistricting. There is no more personal or partisan issue that the legislature considers. An elected official's most visceral drive is generally to be reelected. To be reelected, he/she needs a district they can run in and win. Redistricting is a zero sum game. There are winners and there are losers; there is no win-win.

With that cheery backdrop, let's drill down into the redistricting process for Texas Senate and House seats. Customarily, the Senate will draw its own map for the Senate, the House will approve whatever Senate map is passed over to it, and vice versa. If the legislature fails to pass a redistricting plan in the Regular Session (by May 30), then the legislature loses jurisdiction and redistricting will be done by the Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB). The LRB consists of 5 Republican elected officials: Lt. Gov. Dewhurst; Speaker Straus; Attorney General Abbott; Comptroller Combs; and Land Commissioner Patterson.

I believe that the Senate will be able to pass a Senate redistricting plan. The Republicans intend to draw a 20R - 11D map with Sen. Wendy Davis' seat becoming more Republican. Sen. Huffman's seat will be shored up. The Republican leadership will need to find 2 Democrats to vote to suspend the rules to bring up the map for Senate debate. Finding the votes to suspend appears achievable, given that if a map does not pass the all-Republican LRB will then draw it.

The real question is can the House pass a redistricting plan. In my judgment, the House has a far greater challenge than the Senate. There are currently 101 House Republicans. I believe that you can only draw 86 to 88 Republican seats if you want those seats to remain Republican for 10 years. If you draw too many Republican seats, the Republican majorities will be too thin and the Democrats will flip the seats in succeeding elections given the changing demographics in the state.

Let's say I am right and you can only draw 86 - 88 Republican seats. That means the Democrats will pick up 13 - 15 seats in the 2012 election; and you could have to pair up to 26 to 30 Republican members. Pairings will probably be less because of retirements: e.g. Rep. Warren Chisum has already indicated that he is running for the Railroad Commission.

It will be very difficult for the House Republican majority to pass a map for two reasons. One, they will have to pair numerous Republicans. Secondly, they will have to go back to their primary voters and say we had a 101 seats, and I just voted for a map that will give us 86 to 88.

Finally, we have history as a guide. In 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001, a legislative plan did not pass in regular session and the LRB drew the seats. The odds are that it will end up at the LRB again this year.

*Note: This post does not address Department of Justice review or litigation that will be filed regarding any redistricting plan, but rather only examines what may happen in the 82nd Regular Session.

2012: Another Wave Election?

2011-02-22T05:39:00.003-06:00

We have had three successive wave elections in the U.S.: 2006 when the Democrats captured control of Congress; 2008 when President Obama was elected and the Democrats swept Harris County; and 2010 when the Republicans recaptured the U.S. House and picked up 24 seats in the Texas House. Simplistically, a major factor in these wave elections is independents (the largest voting bloc in this country) swinging between voting for Democrats (2006 and 2008) and voting for Republicans (2010).

Combine this independent pendulum swing with what I consider to be the fundamental public policy maxim in this country today: Voters want services; voters do not want to pay for services. In 2010, the voter message was loud and clear -- do not raise my taxes and cut the size of government. But a recent UT/Texas Tribune poll asked voters what services they specifically wanted to cut, and the answer was essentially none of the above. According to pollster Daron Shaw, voters "really want to slash the budget, but not anything in it."

2010 was the election when voters stated they did not want to pay for services. I forsee 2012 as the election when voters state they want services. If I am correct, it could be yet another wave election -- but this time Republicans will be swept out to sea.

A Tale of Two Committees

2011-02-11T08:04:00.004-06:00

House Agriculture & Livestock is a very important committee for rural Texas. Speakers also use it as a rural penalty box for urban members who they want to put in "time out." I first observed this in 2003 when Rep. Lon Burnam was the only member to vote against Speaker Tom Craddick, and on to Agriculture & Livestock he went. In the penalty box this year: Rep. Charlie Howard (R - Sugar Land) UPDATE: I previously listed Rep. Boris Miles in the penalty box. That was incorrect: Rep. Miles requested appointment to Agriculture & Livestock.

House Urban Affairs is an important committee for urban Texas. However, it is often referred to as the "Houston" Affairs Committee because of the many intramural City of Houston fights it is asked to referee. For a rural or suburban member, it can be tedious work -- and an urban penalty box. Only 15 of the 150 members of the Texas House (10%) voted against the election of Speaker Straus. Four of the 9 members (44%) of Urban Affairs votes against the Speaker. Into the urban penalty box: Rep. Phil King (R-Weatherford); Rep. Tan Parker (R-Flower Mound); Rep. Ken Paxton (R-McKinney); and Rep. David Simpson (R-Longview).

A tale of two committees.

Session Rhythm

2011-02-08T18:57:00.004-06:00

The 82nd Regular Session is 20% complete. To a large extent, the Governor has outlined the agenda for the first 60 days of the session by declaring the following emergency issues: voter ID; eminent domain; sonograms prior to an abortion; sanctuary cities; and legislation to provide for a balanced budget amendment to the U. S. Constitution. The first 3 of these issues are already moving through the Senate.

Some have criticized these issues as not being emergencies. Unquestionably, however, they are extremely popular with Republican base voters. From the perspective of many in the Republican leadership, passing these bills along with a balanced budget will constitute a successful session.

I see each of these emergency issues passing in the first 60 - 90 days of the session. I also see other legislation passing in the next 60 days. However, beginning in late March and early April, the legislative process will become extremely random and unpredictable.

Why? The census numbers for redistricting are due April 1. Redistricting is the most personal issue that any legislature can address. You can already feel the tension building. Secondly, the House will also bring the budget to the floor late March or the first week of April. It will contain the major cuts that are currently being debated, and decried by many. As one member figuratively stated: "There is a lot of fuel on the ground. This place is liable to go up in flames."

The current rhythm of the session is that emergency items will pass in the first 60 - 90 days of the session; there will a productive period for other legislation through March; and then all bets are off once the budget and redistricting take center stage.

House Committees

2011-02-03T08:21:00.003-06:00

Speaker Straus stated yesterday that House committee assignments will not be released until next week. Committee appointments are customarily announced on the last legislative day of the week, and the Speaker is then generally unavailable until the next Monday. This gives members time to digest the appointments and, in many cases, cool down.

I expect the House leadership to again follow this procedure next week. In contrast to the Senate committee appointments, I forsee major changes in the composition of the House committees and in individual member assisgnments. Leadership will definitely want the weekend to allow members to settle down.

However, in order to allow the House to begin catching up with the Senate, I believe that it is possible that the House will adjourn on Wednesday next week. Committee assignments would be released; bills, including voter ID, would be immediately referred; and House committees would suspend the posting rules and begin meeting as early as Thursday. Appropriations has already announced that it will begin hearings on Thursday.

The voter ID bill is a top priority of House leadership, and I expect hearings on the bill to begin the week of February 14. However, in order to meet the legal requirements of the Voting Rights Act, it is important that the House move the legislation through the normal process, allowing ample public input, and not to unnecessarily rush it through.

Committee Winners

2011-01-31T19:21:00.004-06:00

Last session, 52% of bills never made it out of their first committee. Accordingly, which committee a bill is referred to and the membership of that committee is critically important to whether a filed bill becomes law or not. This is one of the reasons that the Lt. Governor and the Speaker have enormous power over the legislative process, because they appoint the committees and refer the bills.

Let's examine two issues in the context of Senate committee appointments: tort reform and gaming. Tort reform advocates were extremely unhappy with Senate State Affairs Committee last session for reporting out legislation that weakened tort reform. This session, Sens. Carona and Harris were replaced on the committee with Sens. Huffman and Williams, providing tort reform advocates a 5 - 4 majority on the committee.

Ordinarily, gaming legislation would also be referred to State Affairs. However, because gaming opponents now have a 5 -4 majority on State Affairs, I expect gaming legislation to be referred to Senate Business & Commerce Committee. In addition to Sen. Carona replacing Sen. Fraser as Chairman of Business & Commerce, Sen. Whitmire was added to the committee giving gaming supporters a solid 7 votes on Business & Commerce.

Tort reform and gaming were both apparent winners in the Senate committee appointments.

Senate Springing into Action; House Will Have to Hustle to Keep Up

2011-01-27T05:39:00.008-06:00

Article 3, Section 5(b) of the Texas Constitution provides:

"When convened in regular Session, the first thirty days thereof
shall be devoted to the introduction of bills and resolutions, acting upon
emergency appropriations, passing upon the confirmation of the recess appointees
of the Governor and such emergency matters as may be submitted by the Governor
in special messages to the Legislature. During the succeeding thirty days of the
regular session of the Legislature the various committees of each House shall
hold hearings to consider all bills and resolutions and other matters then
pending; and such emergency matters as may be submitted by the Governor."

Yesterday, the Senate suspended the constitutional order of business so that Senate committees can begin meeting next week. Lt. Gov. Dewhurst has already appointed the members of the Finance Committee, which will begin budget hearings on Monday. Dewhurst stated the membership of the other Senate committees will be announced today or tomorrow, and presumably these committees will also begin meeting next week. Last night, the Senate passed and sent to the House the voter ID bill.

Only two new members were elected to the Senate for the 82nd Legislature as compared to 37 new members in the House. The House was also convulsed by a leadership challenge for 70 days after the November 2 elections. These dynamics positioned the Senate to drive the legislative process vis-a-vis the House, and Lt. Gov. Dewhurst and the Senate are taking full advantage so far and springing into action.

House committee preference cards were due into the Speaker's office yesterday at 6 p.m. Traditionally, House committee appointments are released at the end of the last legislative day of the week. This would point to House committees being appointed by next Thursday, February 3. Expect the Speaker's office to feel pressure to meet this timeline, because the House is going to have to hustle to keep up with the Senate legislatively.

Senate Budget Hearings Begin Next Monday

2011-01-24T15:17:00.003-06:00

Lt. Gov. Dewhurst announced the appointment of the Senate Finance Committee, which is comprised of the same members from last year. Sen. Ogden announced that the Senate would begin budget hearings next Monday. Dewhurst further announced that the other Senate committees would be appointed late Thursday or Friday of this week. The Senate then began the process of convening as a Committee of the Whole to consider SB 14, the voter ID legislation.

The Senate is off to a quick start!

Irresistible Force vs. Immovable Object

2011-01-21T12:52:00.003-06:00

The House released its base budget this week, which does not spend any of the rainy day fund or contemplate increased revenue. As expected, its a bleak picture. The Senate will release its version of the budget next week.

The budget debate reminds me of the irresistible force vs. the immovable object. The irresistible force is the perspective by knowledgeable budgeteers that the required cuts are simply too deep. The immovable object is the overwhelming voter mandate to cut spending and absolutely not to raise taxes -- but voters still want their services. How it will end up is anybody's guess at this point.

A couple of observations. While the Senate is open to reworking the Margins Tax, that idea appears to be stillborn in the House. I believe it likely that the rainy day fund will ultimately be used to defray the shortfall in the current biennium. Higher education is still perceived as being "fat", and there is not much sympathy for avoiding deep cuts there. Increasing motor vehicle registration fees is an idea that is being taken for a spin.

Either the force or the object will have to give: We just don't know which one yet.

Rules and Rankings

2011-01-19T13:27:00.003-06:00

The Senate adopted its rules for the 82nd Legislature and maintained the 2/3rds tradition except for voter id. Legislation requiring a voter to present photo identification at the polls will only require a majority of the Senators present to be debated on the floor. All other legislation will require 2/3rds (21 votes if all 31 Senators are present). The House, with 101 Republicans, is expected to pass numerous pieces of conservative legislation. It will be fascinating to watch how such legislation fares in the Senate with the 2/3rds rule in effect. The House is expected to adopt its rules on Monday.

For the seventh consecutive year, Locke Lord Bissell & Liddell was named the top law firm lobby practice in Texas by Capitol Inside. "The team that Robert Miller leads at Locke Lord Bissell & Liddell has crowned the list of the most powerful law firm lobby practices in Texas since the category was conceived seven years ago. Locke Lord - for starters - has the top law firm lobby shop in Austin because it wants to be number one and works aggressively to not only keep that distinction but to solidify its lock on it more year year." www.capitolinside.com.

Locke Lord professionals ranked in the Top 50 lobbyists in Texas were: Robert Miller, No. 7; Yuniedth Midence Steen, No. 20; and Gardner Pate, No. 50. Consultant Nef Partida was ranked No. 14 in Texas of political consultants who lobby. Way to go team!

Biennial Revenue Likely Higher

2011-01-14T14:17:00.003-06:00

Comptroller’s office notes that the $4.3 billion deficit for the current biennium comes from the budget adopted in 2009, and does not reflect the roughly $2 billion in cuts agencies adopted earlier this year under direction from the Governor, Lt. Governor, and Speaker. The actual deficit should be closer to $2.3 billion. This means the $72.2 billion number will likely be higher, perhaps $74 or $75 billion available for the current biennium.

Hutchison Not Seeking Reelection in '12

2011-01-13T12:13:00.003-06:00

Sen. Hutchison is preparing to announce that she will not seek reelection in 2012.

The race for her seat will immediately begin. Already in the race for the Republican nomination are: Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams; Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones; and former Secretary of State Roger Williams. Expect former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz to quickly announce that he is in the race, and Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert will also jump in.

All eyes then turn to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. If he runs, he becomes the frontrunner because of his statewide visibility and his personal wealth. Dewhurst will wait until after the legislative session before formally announcing his decision on whether or not to run.

Democrats who will look at the race include former Comptroller John Sharp.

And They're Off

2011-01-11T08:35:00.003-06:00

The 82nd Texas Legislature will convene at Noon today. Two interesting votes will take place.

The House of Representatives will elect its presiding officer as the first order of business, and Speaker Joe Straus will be re-elected by a wide margin. Yesterday, 70 out of 101 members of the House Republican Caucus expressed their preference for Straus. As the preferred candidate of the Republican Caucus and with pledges from all but two Democrats, Straus will receive over 120 votes to be reelected as Speaker.

The Senate will vote on its procedural rules for the 82nd Session as the first order of business (Lt. Gov. Dewhurst is constitutionally the presiding officer). The key rules provision is a requirement that legislation receive support from 2/3rds of the Senators present before it can be debated on the Senate floor. With 19 Republicans out of 31, this rule requires the votes of at least two Democrats before a bill can be debated on the floor. Conservative groups have called for the 2/3rds rule to be eliminated so that Republicans will not need Democratic support to bring legislation to the floor. However, the collegial, bipartisan tradition of the Senate will prevail today, and the Senate will again adopt the 2/3rds rule.

2011-01-11T08:34:00.001-06:00

Delphinus

Monday is a Momentous Day

2011-01-08T16:21:00.002-06:00

The 82nd Regular Session of the Texas Legislature commences at Noon on Tuesday. It will consume all of my time over the next five months, but I will have a front row view from the galleries above, and lobbies adjacent to, the House and Senate floors. This blog will provide selective thoughts and observations of mine regarding what is occurring, and will share my "View from the Gallery." All observations and opinions expressed in this blog are mine alone, and not those of my law firm, colleagues or clients.

Even though the Legislature does not convene until Tuesday, Monday will be a momentous day. Former Majority Leader Tom DeLay's punishment phase and sentencing begins at 9 a.m. Monday before Judge Pat Priest in Austin. Whatever sentence is rendered will add fuel to the partisan fires that are already burning brightly in Austin.

Comptroller Susan Combs will release her revenue estimate for the remainder of FY 2011 and the upcoming FY 2011 - 12 biennium. Estimates of the deficit have recently ranged from $18 to $25 billion. On Monday, we will know.

Finally, the House Republican Caucus is scheduled to meet in the Reagan Building at 1:30 p.m. They will consider whether the Caucus should take an official caucus position and endorse a Republican member for Speaker. Stay tuned!